In addition to annexing areas around Russia’s periphery, Putin is reestablishing Russian influence in those Middle Eastern countries that were client states of the former Soviet Union…
Russia is moving fast to take advantage of the US administration’s seeming internal chaos and lack of focus on international affairs. According to Reuters, Russia appears to have deployed special forces to the Egyptian air base at Sidi Barrani, about 60 miles from the Egypt-Libya border, according to US, Egyptian, and diplomatic sources. It could be part of a move on the part of Russia to assist Libyan military commander Khalifa Haftar in the ongoing Libyan civil war. Sources said the United States has observed what appeared to be Russian special operations forces and drones at this western Egyptian base.
The deployment of personnel, aircraft, and drones to western Egypt also speaks volumes for its developing relationship with Egypt itself, an old client state of the Soviet Union. This deployment would indicate a significant amount of cooperation between Egyptian and Russian military forces and some common aims in Libya.
Russian officials have met with both the UN-backed unity government based in Tripoli and Haftar in recent months, with many promises of assistance. Now Moscow appears prepared to back up its diplomatic support for Haftar with tangible military support. Marine general Thomas Waldhauser, head of Africa Command (Africom), told the US Senate last week that Russia was trying to exert influence in Libya to strengthen its leverage over whomever ultimately holds power.
On March 13, Russia announced it had finalized an agreement that incorporates the armed forces of Georgia’s breakaway South Ossetia region into the Russian military’s command structure. This could be the first step in Russia quietly annexing Ossetia. If you remember, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, South Ossetia broke away from Georgia. In August 2008, Russia sent in troops, saying it was protecting civilians in South Ossetia. After a brief war, Russia recognized South Ossetia as an independent state.
Coupled with Russia’s annexation of Crimea, their efforts in Syria, and the deployment of banned cruise missiles, we are seeing Putin’s efforts to reestablish aspects of the old Soviet Empire. In addition to annexing areas around Russia’s periphery, he is reestablishing Russian influence in those Middle Eastern countries that were client states of the former Soviet Union. Part of that influence comes with ports in the Mediterranean (Syria, Libya) for its fleet so that Russia can project power through the southern tier of Europe and influence events in the Middle East.
Sadly, the US response seems to be lacking. We are suffering from the downgrading of traditional centers of foreign policy, such as the State Department, that would take point on these issues. We are feeling the pinch of foreign policy run by the seat of the pants of a small group in the White House lacking any experience or expertise in foreign affairs or national security. We are suffering from an administration that does not heed intelligence and analysis.
The Trump administration needs to start paying attention to what is happening on the international stage. It needs to be able to multitask, not just worry about healthcare and reshaping the government but also Russian maneuvering, North Korean nuclear and missile programs, and Chinese ambitions.
As we focus inward and push a flawed America-first strategy, Russia and others will continue to take advantage and fill the vacuum.
Luis Rueda is an OpsLens Contributor and retired CIA Operations Officer with over 28 years of experience in the clandestine service. During his storied career with the CIA, Rueda served as Chief of Station New Delhi and Chief of Iraq Operations during Operation Iraqi Freedom.
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