A withdrawal of U.S. military forces in Syria will reform the power balance in the Middle East, and not in a good way. I can understand some of the reasoning for a pullout from Syria. All these counterterrorism and counterinsurgency conflicts being waged across the globe are a financial drain on our national budget. We spend billions that could be better used for other needs. The endless conflicts take their toll on the military, wearing down people and equipment. We have 2,000 troops in Syria, surrounded by various unhelpful competitors like Russia, Iran, Turkey, and others. All these issues beg the question: Why not pull out? We have finished ISIS—mission accomplished—it must be time to go home.
First off, ISIS is not finished. Yes, the Caliphate has been destroyed and its organization scattered. However, thousands of ISIS fighters remain at-large, many ready to reconstitute as soon as they can find some breathing space. We are not done with them—pulling U.S. troops out of Syria might give them the breathing space they need.
The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria yields the battlefield to Iran, Russia, Syria, and Turkey. Turkey will have what it wants, a free hand to take on the Kurds and develop a buffer-zone between itself and Kurdish regions—the start of the new Ottoman Empire. Syria’s Assad will be more secure in his position, though I am not sure how serious we ever were about removing him. Russia will have proven itself a staunch ally of Syria and become the indispensable nation in the region. Finally, Iran will have its corridor to Hezbollah and expanded influence. All of these nations will claim that it was their policies and militaries that drove the United States out of Syria.
Our regional allies, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan and others, will wonder whether the U.S. is a credible ally. These nations were involved in supporting anti-Assad forces and half-heartedly supporting the U.S. in its military efforts. They will see this withdrawal as a defeat of sorts for themselves and the U.S. They can’t afford not to be U.S. allies, but they will certainly seek other ways to protect themselves. In the past, that has taken the form of aid to extremist groups. We might see this occur, along with closer relations with Russia.
We may see a greater Iranian presence in the area, something more permanent. Iran will be emboldened by a U.S. withdrawal. That will make Israel more concerned and more aggressive. A U.S. withdrawal could presage Israeli action in Syria and Lebanon, plunging the region into another war.
Then there are the more intangible, negative consequences to U.S. influence and our position as a world leader. Pulling out U.S. troops would be keeping with our current policy of reducing our involvement in the world—focusing inward rather than globally. We will, no doubt, lose influence in the Middle East and our commitment will be called into question. A pull out will have a long-term, negative impact on U.S. national security.
