In early 2018 I provided a handful of predictions. Nearing the end of the year, it is time to see how I did. More importantly, how the country and world are doing.
Britain Prepares for a Hard Brexit — Yes
Prime Minister Theresa May got a deal with the European Union that she attempted to present to the British Parliament. But just like every other time she got close to a deal, key members of her own party resigned. This time she faced a no- confidence vote from her party; she barely survived. More members of her cabinet resigned, and she had to pull the measure from consideration until after the new year. British cabinet leaders have instructed their ministries to prepare for a no deal or hard Brexit, which I called a year ago. This will combine the difficulty of President Trump’s first travel ban with the economic impact that potentially equals the 2008 housing crisis.
North Korea Goes Nuclear — No
Trump did an astounding about face, or maybe his hard rhetoric was just part of driving a hard bargain. But a relationship that featured back and forth Twitter insults and provocative missile launches turned into a summit for Trump that morphed into a publicity coup. There have been little hard results so far, but North and South Korea continue to make small but important gestures towards peace and the ultimate goal of denuclearization. This includes the return of American remains, and the potential for select railway links between the countries. Given how North Korea has beguiled presidents for decades, this may turn out to be a correct prediction that just took longer to come about.
Venezuela Will Be the Next Revolution — Maybe
South America has been the scene of its fair share of revolutions. Venezuela could be next, as its current president, Nicholas Maduro, moves the country towards a left-wing dictatorship. He has stacked a new legislative body with his followers—this body is charged with changing the constitution to give him more power. He is not letting opposition run for local office and has jailed many others.
Every week brings a new catastrophe such as severe fuel shortages before Christmas. The country remains a basket case, humanitarian disaster, and revolution waiting to happen, but as those who said Assad is on his “last days” can attest, the exact timing of revolution is tough especially when the people have been disarmed. The Russians have recently landed bombers there which raise fears of another dictatorship they will prop up, and escalating tensions that recall the Cold War. Venezuela still has a good chance of being the next revolution.
Republicans Will Lose Seats but Maintain Control of the House and Senate — Half and Half
This one surprised me. When I went to revisit my predictions I thought I had estimated that they would lose the House and maintain the Senate. They did maintain the Senate and even gained some seats. Republicans lost the House in what started as a minor loss within historical norms but, with the break of many undecided seats towards the Democrats, it has gone from about 20 to 40 seats lost and blue wave territory.
The underlying logic remained, that Republicans had high expectations with control of all three branches of government, as well as a long list of priorities. For three cycles, they ran on repealing and replacing Obamacare and made additional promises about tax reform, the budget, and the debt ceiling. But they whiffed badly on Obamacare several times, and barely squeaked through a mild tax reform bill. It turns out that preexisting conditions are important to the people when it came time to actually change Obamacare, and Republicans fell victim to the historical rebuke that the in-power president gets in the first midterms. They did much better in the Senate, but largely due to an incredibly favorable map than to anything Trump should boast about.
Wild-card Pick: Infinity War Will Be Bigger than Star Wars — Yes
Just the trailer for “Avenger: Infinity War” was the most viewed of all time. The trailer for the follow-up movie “End Game” has surpassed that record. Starting with “Iron Man” almost ten years ago, and continuing with a roster of characters that are now household names, Marvel films have earned the hype through a dozen great movies over the past ten years (forgiving an occasional “Iron Man 2” or “Age of Ultron”). This turned out to be as hugely popular as people believed. “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” was critically acclaimed but also incredibly controversial. The real magic that you will tell your kids about is happening in the Marvel Universe.
So there you have it. Outside of the major exception of North Korea, the predictions turned out to be fairly accurate. We never know what the future holds but like a wanderer in the desert, it’s important to check your map about where you have been and to check your compass to see where you are going. Stay tuned for the next part where I offer predictions for 2019.
