China closed the main road link to North Korea Friday, the China-North Korea Friendship Bridge. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told a press conference that the closure was temporary. He said the bridge “will be closed temporarily in the near future for repair work on the bridge floor” by the North Koreans. International observers question that explanation, however, because the closure comes just three days after China announced cessation of flights to North Korea.
A spokesman for Air China said the flights were canceled for commercial reasons, citing low demand. He did not have any prediction for when the flights would resume, except to say that the airline will respond to desires of travelers. However, Air China is not selling tickets for any travel for the rest of 2017 or any dates in 2018. The Chinese Foreign Ministry claimed to be unaware that Air China had canceled its flights, saying the airlines make their decisions based on commercial factors.
Diplomatic Snub
South China Morning Post reports on another factor that suggests a strain between the two communist neighbors. “President Xi Jinping sent a special envoy Song Tao to Pyongyang last week to brief the Workers’ Party of Korea about last month’s Chinese Communist Party congress, seeking direct contact through party-to-party channels. But Song’s four-day visit does not appear to have led immediately to warmer ties. He was not received by the paramount leader Kim Jong-un, although he did meet North Korea’s number two Choe Ryong-Hae and the Worker’s Party vice president Ri Su-yong.”
Kim Jon Un’s refusal to meet with the Chinese Communist Party envoy is seen as a snub in diplomatic circles. It is considered especially provocative in a regional context. Sun Xingjie is a researcher in international diplomacy who specializes in Korean affairs at Jilin University, located in Changchun in northeast China. He described the snub as an unmistakable indication that there is a breach between the two Communist Parties, not just between the two countries. In the communist system, that party breach is more significant than what happens in relations between the two nation-states.
“I don’t know if North Korea will survive a year under sanctions. Many people will die.”
“Although people may say Song was not as senior in the Communist Party hierarchy as previous Chinese special envoys, I think it is an unequivocal move against Beijing, showing Kim is refusing to discuss the possibility of denuclearization or make any concessions on his ambitious nuclear and missile programs,” Sun said. “The North Korean nuclear crisis has reached a point where both countries’ core interests are at stake and apparently neither side can afford to make compromises to solve their structural differences on the issue.”
China Cutting Off North Korea, Or Vice Versa?
In a separate interview, Sun suggested that it was North Korea who shut the bridge, not China. He called the maintenance story a “smart diplomatic excuse” from North Korea, adding “It is much better to say the bridge is closed for maintenance than because North Korea is frustrated with the sanctions, saving face for both sides.” He questioned the premise of the excuse, noting that it is rare to undertake construction in freezing wintertime conditions.
It is not surprising that Kim would be angry at Chinese leaders. In September, China announced that it would participate in some of the international sanctions imposed on North Korea because of its nuclear tests. The Commerce Ministry notified North Korean companies operating in China that they will have to close by mid-January. The Ministry’s website carried a notice that at some point in the future North Korean-Chinese partnerships or joint ventures also will be closed, but did not specify a deadline.
Additionally, China’s central bank notified Chinese financial institutions that they would be required to abide by international sanctions against North Korea. According to a formerly high ranking North Korean economic official who defected to the South, Kim Jong Un does not trust Chinese President Xi Jin Ping. Ri Jong Ho told the Asia Society in New York that Kim would like a relationship with the U.S., and in fact sees it as the key to his staying in power.
Sanctions Having Desired Effect
The new sanctions, however, are having a very strong effect. “The sanctions the White House has imposed are historical. Never before have such strong sanctions been placed on North Korea. I don’t know if North Korea will survive a year [under] sanctions. Many people will die.”
Maybe China finally has tired of its diplomatic blunt instrument, which it has brandished occasionally to frighten or distract American leaders. Or maybe the blunt instrument is asserting itself against its Chinese masters, believing that its nuclear weapons put it on an equal footing. It is hard to see how it can survive, however, if China is committed at last to reining in the excesses of the Kim Jong Un regime.
