By Jon Harris:
Years ago, in 1984, a now-famous political advertisement ran for President Reagan. It featured a bear lurking in the woods. The bear, of course, was a symbol for the USSR, the Russian bear.
At the end of his term, President Obama took a very clear and politically motivated move in an attempt to make an exclamation mark on his abysmal legacy. Vladimir Putin showed the world that the outgoing President, Barack Obama, was no longer, if ever, a factor on the world stage. By not reciprocating in the expulsion of American diplomats in response to Obama’s “punishment,” Vladimir Putin displayed a very crafty and skilled move in a global game of chess.
For eight years, this very accomplished “Russian bear” has clearly outmaneuvered and outmatched President Obama every step of the way on foreign policy.
Pushing the United States Out
We have quite a few examples of the failed or diminished foreign policy of the Obama administration. For one thing, the United States has been excluded from talks that representatives from the nation would have otherwise been involved with in the past.
Just this past December, Putin backed an assault by President Bashar Assad and facilitated the ousting of the Syrian resistance in Aleppo. The early results indicate that this marks the end of the resistance in Syria, and the question of whether the resistance can continue to mount any effective fight against Assad’s government. Afterwards, President Assad met with Russia, Turkey, and Iran to design the terms of resolution. Glaringly excluded were the United States and the United Nations. Vladimir Putin was in the driver’s seat, and Obama was not even in the car.
The Pakistani government claims Washington is blaming them for the turmoil in Afghanistan. Mushahid Ullah Khan, a close aide to Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, said, “The US has failed to bring peace to Afghanistan, so now we are trying to engage with other regional countries to work for Afghanistan’s stability, which is essential for peace in the entire region.” As Afghanistan moves closer to India, Pakistan is looking for closer cooperation with China and Russia to counter India’s influence. The Indian and Afghan governments have accused Pakistan’s military of, if not backing the Taliban insurgents, at least allowing them to operate within the Pakistani border areas.
Enter Putin to fill the void left by the United States under President Obama, further increasing his influence in the area. Representatives from Russia, China, and Pakistan met in Moscow to discuss concerns about the growing activity in Afghanistan of extremist groups, including the Afghan branch of the Islamic State. Putin, being the pragmatist, is looking not only to the stability of Afghanistan but to the safety and influence of Mother Russia.
Case in point, the United States, which still has nearly 10,000 troops in Afghanistan, was not part of the discussions, effectively shut out of the Moscow talks. This was the third in a series of meetings between Russia, China, and Pakistan. Under Obama, the United States grew to be sidelined in talks concerning Afghanistan’s future and stability in the region.
Putin’s Lack of Respect for Obama
Additionally, Putin’s lack of respect or fear of responses from the United States under President Obama was evident several years ago.
In 2013, the Obama Administration drew their “Red Line” in the sands of Syria over the use of chemical weapons. The Administration threatened military intervention and the removal of President Assad. Putin countered the threat by negotiating for the removal of Assad’s chemical weapons. The Obama Administration then backed away from the threats of air strikes in the country. This action placed Putin squarely in the seat of peacemaker and showed a weak and hesitant US foreign policy under Obama.
On September 11, 2013, Vladimir Putin made a direct appeal to the American people to reject President Obama’s calls for possible use of force against Syria, using an op-ed in The New York Times to counter many of the arguments Obama made 24 hours earlier in a speech to the nation.
Here, Obama was outplayed and very much outmatched.
At the end of an all-night meeting held in February of 2014 Putin remarked, “We must start working on returning Crimea to Russia.” On February 23, 2014, pro-Russian demonstrations broke out in the Crimean city of Sevastopol. On February 27, Russian “green men,” troops without insignia, took over the Supreme Council of Crimea as well as other important sites in Crimea. Shortly afterward, a pro-Russian government took power in Crimea. By July 2015, Crimea was fully integrated into Russia.
After the integration of Crimea by Putin’s actions, the Obama Administration did nothing until the Crimean referendum, in which 97% of the voters reported they wanted to become part of Russia. After the referendum, the Obama White House threatened to take strong actions in the face of Putin’s move into the region.
“Today’s actions send a strong message to the Russian government that there are consequences for their actions that violate the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, including their actions supporting the illegal referendum for Crimean separation,” the White House said.
The strong action amounted to freezing assets and banning travel of 11 Russians and Ukrainians. Putin and his government suffered no repercussions from the Obama Administration.
Trump May Help
President Trump is a new type of politician. In fact, he is no politician at all. Something that is characteristic of Donald Trump, learned from his many years in business, is brinkmanship. Putin is certainly aware of this, and the two world leaders will both have to adjust their tactics to face each other. President Trump will have to harness the quick reactions that he is known for engaging in when pushed. Putin will have to realize that he could certainly drive President Trump too far, and end up in a situation not advantageous to his purposes, or anyone else’s. This will be a necessary growth period for this relationship.
We are already starting to see this adjustment. Senior Russian officials have stated that Moscow is ready to normalize relations with the U.S. now that President Trump has been inaugurated. Trump has voiced his desire for improved relations with Russia, and in the recent phone call between the two leaders, that was a main topic. Both leaders have stated they admired the effective way the other approaches decisions.
With the new administration of Donald Trump in office, Putin will study and test. This is what he does. The new President, or any political leader, must remember just whom they are dealing with when dealing with Vladimir Putin. He is the product of his past. He is one that plays a very long game. Those on the world stage that deal with the Russian President must never forget. They are dealing with the former LT Colonel of the Committee for State Security (KGB) and later Director of the Federal Security Service (FSB).
Putin himself once said, “There are no former KGB men.”
President Trump should take him at his word.
Jon Harris is an OpsLens contributor and former Army NCO, civilian law enforcement officer, and defense contractor with over 30 years in the law enforcement community. He holds a B.S. in Government and Politics and an M.S. in Criminal Justice.
To contact or book OpsLens contributors on your program or utilize our staff for your story, contact [email protected]
