North Korea’s aggressive nuclear missile program may have the unintended consequence of ending Japan’s pacifist constitution. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been pushing the limits of the pacifist clause in the constitution written by the victorious Americans in 1945. His steps to “normalize” Japan’s military options have prepared his government to meet the challenges posed by Kim Jong Un.
Abe Reinterpreted Japan’s Pacifist Constitution
Abe began in 2014 to ease restrictions on Japan’s military activity. Until then, Japan had limited the use of military force solely to the defense of the land or the people. Abe’s new interpretation allowed for “collective defense” operations.
The North Korean missile that flew over Japan in September took only 7 minutes to reach the island of Hokkaido.
In practice, collective defense meant that Japanese forces could have limited participation outside Japan in situations that posed a threat to the people or the land. For example, they were allowed to provide defensive support to U.S. troops outside Japanese territory in a war that threatened Japan. They also could stage rescue operations overseas of Japanese citizens held hostage by terrorists, and could conduct minesweeping operations in critical shipping lanes.
Reforms With Big Political Risk
Those reforms were controversial at the time. Only 34 per cent of voters supported loosening the rules, and 50 per cent opposed it. Abe took a big political risk, as many political analysts expected that the issue would energize activists for the opposition. But he doubled down on the bet a year later.
Japan was now allowed to shoot down a ballistic missile flying over its territory headed for the United States.
In 2015, the Abe government passed a bill through the parliament to allow Japanese troops to take part in overseas operations. This allowed specific additional activities. For the first time, for example, Japan was now allowed to shoot down a ballistic missile flying over its territory headed for the United States. Previously, the constitution was interpreted to mean that they could down a missile only if it was aimed at Japan.
Japan also could now provide logistical support to South Korean troops defending against a North Korean invasion. The troops still could not fight on Korean soil. In another important change, Japanese troops were no longer restricted to providing support to allied troops only in proximity to Japan. The new law allowed them to provide logistical and defensive support to allies anywhere in the world.
Abe’s political bet paid off. He was re-elected in October 2017 by a large margin. The changes he had made in Japan’s military posture were seen by most Japanese as necessary to counter Chinese aggression. Chinese diplomatic threats, and military and commercial activity in the South China Sea, were cause for great concern among Japanese citizens.
Abe has forged a close relationship with President Trump, beginning with their bilateral meeting immediately after the election. He and the President-elect bonded over their shared assessment of the threat posed to world stability by North Korean and Chinese aggression. Trump approved of Abe’s desire for a more self-sufficient, muscular military posture.
Japan To Acquire New Medium Range Missiles
Yesterday, Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera announced that Japan intends to acquire two types of medium range air-to-surface missiles. Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM-ER) will be deployed from Japan Air Force F-15 fighter jets. The JASSM-ER has a range of over 600 miles, three times the longest range of their current missile inventory.
Japan’s Air Force also will deploy Joint Strike Missiles, to be launched from their F-35A stealth fighter jets. The JSM has a range of over 300 miles. The Defense Minister explained that current defense needs dictate an ability to conduct defensive warfare at a longer distance. He announced the new inventory “as ‘stand-off’ missiles that can be fired beyond the range of enemy threats.”
The North Korean missile that flew over Japan in September took only 7 minutes to reach the island of Hokkaido. The Japanese emergency alert system broadcast a warning three minutes after the launch, giving residents only four minutes to obtain shelter. Although there is still political opposition to warlike preparations among some Japanese, there is broad and deep understanding for the government’s desire for a longer reach.
Chinese aggression boosted Prime Minister Abe’s ability to interpret the pacifist clause in Japan’s constitution more liberally than ever. North Korea’s martial stance and maniacal obsession with nuclear weaponry have prompted even greater stretching of the law. Kim Jong Un may prove to be the factor that drives Japan to change the constitution itself.
