In a recent speech about national security, President Trump focused on a more holistic view of what the global picture looked like. While not explicitly defining American policy regarding Iran, the President did refer to the Obama administration’s deal with Tehran regarding nuclear development as “incomprehensibly bad.” What does this mean for the controversial agreement’s future?
On Monday, President Trump delivered a speech outlining his administration’s national security strategy. The speech was in reference to the Congressionally mandated 48-page document that outlines the guiding principals of foreign policy for the Trump White House. Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama both chose to only issue a strategy document; President Trump broke protocol by insisting on delivering his national security strategy in person.
With the strategy that I announced today, we are declaring that AMERICA is in the game and AMERICA is DETERMINED to WIN!
OUR FOUR PILLARS OF NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY: pic.twitter.com/B3POaMVID8
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 18, 2017
In October, the President announced that he would not certify to Congress that the Iranian government was in compliance with Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that the Obama administration reached with Tehran. The JCPOA claimed to ensure that “Iran’s nuclear program will be exclusively peaceful.” This move started a 60-day countdown to Congress being empowered to restore penalties and sanctions that had been lifted by the JCPOA deal.
Restoring the sanctions from the Iranian Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015 would have been an extremely risky move, as it would likely have resulted in Iran pulling out of the pact. The JCPOA ensures that at least officially, Iran will not pursue the development of nuclear weapons. Without the agreement, there is nothing preventing Iran from overtly pursuing such a program; an Iran armed with nuclear weapons would no doubt result in reactionary development from their rivals in the area.
Last week, Congress declined to reimpose the sanctions before the deadline. This means that the President has until January to decide if his administration will continue to wave energy sanctions against the Islamic Republic. The President’s speech did not hint at what decision will be made next month.
“The nuclear deal will not collapse… Those who hope that Trump will cause its collapse, are wrong.” -Iranian President Hassan Rouhani
For their part, the Iranian government insists that President Trump will not cause their deal to collapse. Previously, Iran has stated that they would respect the deal as long as the other six signatories respect it; they also stated they would “shred” the deal if the United States pulled out. After President Trump announced in October that he would not be recertifying Iranian compliance in the deal, Iran threatened to attack all U.S. military forces in the region with ballistic missiles. Many critics of the deal have said that it doesn’t stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons, but only acts as a soft delay until 2030.
More unfavorable revelations about the deal have continued to leak as tensions escalate, with investigative reporter Josh Meyer exposing the Obama administration‘s concessions beyond just the lifting nuclear sanctions. In order to get the Iranian government to agree to the deal, the Obama White House dismantled a program designed to target Hezbollah drug traffickers and money launderers.
By undermining #projectcassandra, the Obama administration helped allow the Hezbollah criminal enterprise to evolve into a major global security threat that bankrolls its terrorist and military operations https://t.co/Ka4sPaPl2N via @JoshMeyerDC pic.twitter.com/7DJYPjLl0Z
— POLITICO (@politico) December 18, 2017
Hezbollah, the Shi’a Islamist political party and terror group based in Lebanon, has long been known to be an extension of Iranian interests in the region. Hezbollah is involved in Iranian proxy wars through the Middle East; the fact that the terror group gets its funding through illegal operations is no secret either. However, by shutting down the DEA operation Project Cassandra, the Obama administration passively authorized a terrorist organization to raise funds by trafficking cocaine and laundering money. The effects of the fallout from this scandal remain to be seen.
The United States is not alone in ratcheting up the pressure on Iran. The French Foreign Affairs Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said during a visit to Washington D.C. that the U.S. and France were both determined to “vigorously” raise pressure on Tehran over their ballistic missiles program.
“Iran’s hegemonic temptations in the region is a matter of urgency because it’s within the framework of getting peace in Iraq and Syria that we will stop this process.” -French Foreign Affairs Minister Le Drian.
Iran has been openly critical of French President Emmanuel Macron for taking a hardline stance on Iran. France is the only signatory other than the U.S. on the Iran nuclear deal that has stated they are open to revisiting the agreement. Iran has claimed that France will lose international credibility if they “blindly follow” President Trump’s lead. However, France remains undeterred. Le Drian countered that “We are fully determined to press very vigorously on Iran to stop the development of an increasingly significant ballistic capability.” He emphasized that the possibility of sanctions were not off the table.
The fact remains that it appears that Iran views walking away from the JCPOA of their own accord, without provocation, too risky. Even if the United States ends up “shredding” the deal, it would be more in line with Iran’s previous history to expect them to expand their asymmetrical activities, rather than engage in a direct military conflict.
In addition to the various ground-based proxy wars they are engaging in, Iran has also been bolstering their cyber warfare capabilities. Iran has been expanding cyber activities against their main opponent in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia. It seems that at a minimum, if the deal is ended, Iran can be expected to take part in a Russian-style cyber offensive against the U.S. and France.
While it is much more difficult to take a proxy ground war to the United States or Europe when compared to Yemen, it is alarming to find out that since the deal was struck, Hezbollah has been able to fund terror activities due to the ending of Project Cassandra by the Obama White House. It appears that the agreement may have actually funded the next attack on America and her allies, rather than ensured a nuke free Iran.
