North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has said nothing about last week’s failed U.S. missile test. And that may signal an important victory for American diplomacy. It may mean that U.S. deterrence is working.
Failed U.S. Missile Test
A new ballistic missile interceptor failed a second test firing last week. Administration officials said that Raytheon’s SM-3 Block IIA was fired from an on-shore test site in Hawaii, but the new missile interceptor failed. This was the second failure of the SM-3, after a previous ship-launched missile failed in June.
The failure of the June missile was attributed to human error. In that case, an investigation revealed that a Navy seaman, a data-encryption specialist, had incorrectly identified the target test missile as an incoming ‘friendly.’ That caused the SM-3 system to self-destruct rather than risk collateral damage.
SM-3 Block IIA
The SM-3 Block IIA is designed to counter intermediate range missiles. Last week’s test firing was at least the second time the missile interceptor has been test fired from land. Similar systems have been deployed for years on ships, but land-based launches represent a new defense strategy.
The failure to intercept may have had nothing to do with the missile itself….
The SM-3 itself is a fairly new system. The January experiment was designed to test the performance of a land-based SM-3 Block IIA missile interceptor against an air-launched target. The missile interceptor was fired from the Pacific Missile Range Facility at Kauai, at an incoming ‘enemy’ missile launched from a nearby airplane. By contrast, the June exercise tested a ship-launched interceptor against a land-launched ‘enemy’ missile.
Officially, the Department of Defense has refused to comment on the failure, but will confirm only that the test took place. Mark Wright, spokesman for the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, issued the following statement. “The Missile Defense Agency and U.S. Navy sailors manning the Aegis Ashore Missile Defense Test Complex (AAMDTC) conducted a live-fire missile flight test using a Standard-Missile (SM)-3 Block IIA missile launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility, Kauai, Hawaii, Wednesday morning.”
Few details are known about exactly what happened. The failure to intercept may have had nothing to do with the missile itself, but could be attributable to the AEGIS system or to the radars that provide data to the targeting and fire control systems.
FMS Sale to Japan
Still, it could prove an embarrassment for Raytheon at a delicate moment. In early January the State Department announced approval for a possible Foreign Military Sale (FMS) of the system to Japan. State Department approval is an important step in securing U.S. government approval for an FMS contract.
“The State Department has made a determination approving a possible Foreign Military Sale to Japan of Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) Block IIA missiles for an estimated cost of $133.3 million. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency delivered the required certification notifying Congress of this possible sale today.
The Government of Japan has requested a possible sale of four (4) Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) Block IIA missiles. Also included are four (4) MK 29 missile canisters, U.S. Government and contractor representatives’ technical assistance, transportation, engineering and logistics support services, and other related elements of logistical and program support. The estimated total case value is $133.3 million.”
Victory for U.S. Diplomacy?
Sherlock Holmes once drew the attention of Dr. Watson to the curious behavior of the dog who didn’t bark at a supposed intruder. There is a similarly curious development in the case of the failed test. North Korean President Kim Jong Un has said nothing about it.
The behavior expected from Kim after a U.S. failure is usually a boast about North Korean strength and the puny ability of American forces to withstand his might. In contrast, there has not been a word about it from Pyongyang.
“The U.S. has to make him believe that Trump is different, that he means it. Then he will come to the table.”
It is possible that Kim is behaving only for propaganda purposes ahead of the Olympics. It is also possible that American and South Korean quiet diplomacy and overt show of force have persuaded Kim he should decrease tensions. A high-ranking Korean official told me privately last year, “Kim Jong Un will listen only if the U.S. can make him come to the table. And he will only come to the table if he believes his life and his family are in danger.”
“He believes that Trump is no different from Obama, or Bush, or Clinton. He thinks Trump’s threats are empty. The U.S. has to make him believe that Trump is different, that he means it. Then he will come to the table.”
Kim’s silence in the aftermath of the missile interceptor test may be a sign – like his Olympic overtures and the cessation of missile and nuclear tests – that he is starting to believe that Trump means it.
