2017 was a good year as far as the war against the Islamic State went. Rising amid the power vacuum created by the civil war in Syria and Iraq’s continued struggles to rebuild after the American invasion, ISIS was able to accomplish the near inconceivable, establishing an autonomous terrorist-led nation-state. While the Islamic State itself has fallen in the face of pressure from Iraq, Turkey, the United States, Iran, and others, the threat of ISIS remains.
With global headlines turning elsewhere, it’s easy to forget about ISIS. However, the group remains active and organized. Even as its territory diminished throughout 2017, ISIS reports that it carried out roughly 500 attacks against the Iraqi military, and 300 against forces in Syria. Many of these attacks were carried out in defense of Mosul and Raqqa. However, continued suicide-style attacks remain likely both in Mesopotamia and abroad.
In recent days, ISIS set up a fake check-point in Iraq, and then used it to kill 10 civilians and to injure five more. The terrorists were able to escape after the attack, leaving future assaults likely. Meanwhile, in and along the road from Baghdad to Kirkuk, located in Kurdish-controlled lands, attacks and raids remain common.
Kurdish authorities believe that thousands of ISIS members are still active in the region. Sarhad Qadr, the former head of Kirkuk Suburban Police, claims that roughly 2,000 ISIS members are active in Kirkuk alone. The Kurds have proven to be among the most effective forces in fighting ISIS. However, Iraq’s sweeping and sparsely populated landscapes can be difficult to control.
While ISIS terrorists are no longer launching large scale shock and awe campaigns, they have been carrying out successful night attacks and guerrilla operations across Mesopotamia. ISIS often targets night gathering spots, such as markets and restaurants. The attacks are making it unsafe for people to get on with normal life.
ISIS Shifting Focus Outside of Middle East
ISIS became famous for establishing a physical Islamic State. Yet the groups activities have been far from limited to Iraq, Syria, and surrounding regions. Indeed, ISIS is believed to have carried out over 140 attacks in 29 different countries outside of the principal battlefields. Over 2,000 people have been killed in these attacks.
Perhaps the most brazen attack was that of gunman Michael Zehaf-Bibeau, who managed to infiltrate the Canadian parliament building and open fire. Reportedly, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper was in the building and narrowly missed a run-in with Zehaf-Bibeau.
In 2015, 224 people were killed when ISIS-linked terrorists blew up Metrojet Flight 9268 in flight from Egypt to Russia. 86 people were killed in France during the Bastille Day massacre, with a terrorist using a lorry to run down revelers.
The Middle East and North Africa have been hotspots, with ISIS conducting attacks in Egypt, Libya, Kuwait, and elsewhere. Europe has also seen a rash of attacks, with ISIS appearing to recruit and infiltrate the large flows of refugees and migrants now pouring into Europe.
ISIS long used social media and the Internet to lure people from their home countries to Syria and Iraq. Now, ISIS is less concerned about luring people to the Middle East, and more open to cell-style organizations that can strike anywhere and are difficult to dismantle.
So far, 2018 has been a quiet start for ISIS. A January bombing in Baghdad claimed the lives of 38 people, while another January attack in Afghanistan cost the lives of six more. Six Russians were also killed in February, following at ISIS-linked attack on a church.
Is ISIS’s power waning or could this simply be a lull before the storm? Many security experts warn that ISIS is far from finished even if the Islamic State itself has fallen.
