Iraq recently held an election that reflects the remaining tension and pessimism in the country. Iraq is regularly ranked as one of the most corrupt countries in the world. The majority of Iraqis believe that the most important challenge facing the country and Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi’s government is corruption. The tense relation between Baghdad and Irbil in the wake of the September Kurdish independence referendum is another challenge that requires radical solutions.
The government also has to contend with the challenge of reconstructing the country, made much worse by the current financial crisis. The 2018 state budget indicated a deficit of 13 trillion dinars. Other observers believe that the process to collect illegal arms throughout the country will be one of the greatest challenges facing Iraq. The weapons are not only in the hands of armed factions that fought ISIS, but the general public as well.
As a result of these problems, Prime Minister al-Abadi came in third nationally, with Moqtada al-Sadr’s party coming in first. The Fatah Alliance led by Hadi al-Amiri, a paramilitary leader close to Iran, came in second. Overall, only about 40 percent of the people voted, which is the lowest it’s been in 15 years. Al Sadr’s win is particularly interesting as he has been a fiery critic of American influence and actually fought US forces in 2003. He had disbanded his militia but restarted it in response to the ISIS seizure of Iraqi territory. But he also wants to remove Iranian influence from Iraq and has reached out to other Arab states to soothe fears that Iraq will become another satellite of Iran. He represents an Iraq-first strategy that will likely minimize American influence in the country.
The irony comes from how close al-Sadr’s rhetoric sounds to Trump’s America-first talk. Al-Sadr won’t be prime minister, but his party won the single largest block of seats, and he will be vital in discussions to form a coalition government. His party benefited from Iraqi disaffection with foreign influence in their country. Once-candidate Trump blasted NATO as not pulling their weight and paying their share. He said the war in Syria and Iraq was pointless. Trump failed to take a phone call from Taiwan and said China was cheating. Each of these items has been modified slightly, but the coming trade war with China and threat of tariffs continue to signal an America-first strategy that strongly appeals to disaffected Americans.
Yet American allies hearing this rhetoric and seeing Trump’s victory probably feel a bit like Iraq after al-Sadr’s win. Regardless of the wisdom of intervening back in 2003, America is invested in the country after fighting terrorists and insurgents for years. We have spent money to rebuild the country and have tried to build a strategy based on a democratic Iraq being an ally.
All of that, and at least the status of thousands of soldiers currently fighting ISIS, is now in doubt. But al-Sadr seemed to win by promising similar things that Trump did for Americans. He wants to put them first, make their country strong without outside interference, and lessen the people’s hurt. This is a good reality check on the possible dangers of an America-first strategy and suggests that a bit more inclusive rhetoric and tact might calm the fears of allies while still meeting the needs of struggling Americans.
