It’s shaping up to be a tough midterm election for Republicans. So far, Democrats have been contesting matches that historically they’d stand little chance in, and along the way, they’ve secured a few crucial victories. With November fast approaching, President Donald Trump is reportedly looking to hit the road, touring America to drum up support.
White House insiders claim that the President is looking to attend events in roughly one out of every two days. If so, he’ll be spending significantly more time on the road than Barack Obama did in his first—and similarly crucial— midterm election back in 2018. The President’s travel plans haven’t been finalized, so it’s possible things will change.
Republican candidates, meanwhile, find themselves in a tough spot. Many of Trump’s preferred candidates won their primary campaigns, sometimes bolstered by last-minute tweets from the President. Trump remains very popular among Republicans with an 87 percent approval rating.
However, Trump enjoys far less appeal among independents, with only 39 percent supporting him. While Republican support is crucial for determining primaries, it’s the independent vote that often carries the November election in closely contested districts. If Trump-backed candidates only secure 40 percent of the independent vote, they will be strong enough to secure office in some districts.
So now, some Republican candidates face a tough choice: Do they embrace Trump at the risk of alienating independent voters, or do they risk low turnout among Republican voters by not embracing the President? In tight races, Republicans may need the support of both Republicans and independents to win. Lacking that, Democrats may be able to secure nominations with relative ease.
Trump’s barnstorming will almost certainly rally his base. However, could it also turn independent voters away from local GOP candidates?
House and Senate Up for Grabs
Analysts suggest that the House and possibly the Senate could go to Democrats. So far, the House is seen as more vulnerable to Democrat takeover, even though Democrats will need to secure 23 seats versus just two for the Senate. However, while Democrat senators will have to contest 26 seats, only nine Republicans are up for reelection.
