The midterm elections created a great deal of noise, particularly with the shenanigans in Flordia, but the Democratic control of the House and Republican control of the Senate has worldwide implications as well. The biggest is probably that the border wall won’t get built. Ironically though, in cynical Washington politics it is actually a good thing for President Trump. He started his campaign talking about illegals and building a wall, and in the past he has put Democrats in the position of defending MS-13. Every time another Kate Steinle is murdered or a migrant caravan riots, Trump can say that he wanted to build a wall and point an accusing finger at the Democrats in the House. It’s a simple and winning issue for him because it represents legitimate economic and security concerns of many Americans that liberals ignore.
The American position in Asia will continue to get stronger. In between calling Trump unstable and comparing him to the Persian dictator Xerxes, elites already acknowledge that allies in the Pacific along with Britain and France have contributed more to Freedom of Navigation patrols and forming economic and security alliances to block an aggressive China. This has improved the situation in Asia, and because Trump’s diplomacy is often based on his personal interactions, and the directives of his cabinet (see below), America will likely see more of the same.
NATO will become stronger due to similar issues. Allies are paying more and committing more soldiers to deterrence in Eastern Europe and the Baltics. Macedonia has made necessary changes to join NATO and end long-standing friction with Greece. Poland wants to build a giant American base and name it “Fort Trump.” Democrats in congress could make a stand against building the base and other budgetary items, but again they would have to defend the inevitable charges that they are weak on defense. Like defending MS-13 and taking away the tax cuts, these are losing positons that Trump can easily maneuver Democrats into and exploit for his gain.
Control of the Senate for Republicans means that Trump’s cabinet and judicial nominees have an easier path to confirmation. With a few extra Senators for example, the Republicans could have afforded defections from Flake and Murkowski, and confirmed Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh much sooner. Trump will continue to have his picks for cabinet positions confirmed, likely meaning more men like General Mattis providing strong leadership over their departments and the U.S. military posture around the world.
There are a variety of things to be concerned about. I’m not a fan of Nancy Pelosi being third in line for the Presidency or using a “subpoena cannon” against Trump. Many pundits see this election as a rebuke to Trump that may weaken his position with foreign leaders, even though the Republican losses fit within historical norms. But overall, Trump will find that he can use Democrats in congress as a useful foil on a host of issues such as taxes, immigration, and defense, while he can also take credit for the “art of the deal” if the split bodies can produce legislation that he wants to sign. Trump will remain vilified by the elite even though he is producing meaningful results around the world.
