In the first of this two-part series we handicapped the front-runners for the 2020 Democratic nomination for president. Today we go over the dark horses.
Top tier candidates stumble. Think of George Romney (Mitt’s dad) in ‘68 and his “brainwashing,” Gary Hart in ’84 and his “Monkey Business,” and Howard Dean and his scream in ‘04. All guys who had a legit shot at the nod until they stepped in it. This is what a dark horse hopes for, to take advantage of the power vacuum and snarfle up the support of the faltering paladin. Sometimes the time and the candidate make the vacuum, as in Obama in ’08 and Trump last time around. Neither looked like a good bet at first. Both got the big prize.
As the field takes shape this year the dark horses will be looking at possibly Hillary, Sanders, Warren, Harris, Biden, Bloomberg and others for mistakes. A dumb phrase here, a revealed scandal there, an untimely liaison wherever can sink a candidacy with voters. Though Dem voters do show a mercy for personal flaws, like sociopathic megalomania and modern Venezuelan economics, that GOP voters tend to take a dim view of. Like their Tory cousins, with GOP scandals it’s usually either money or rent boys. Let’s look at who the GOP may, if these Dems get lucky then play their cards right, face in 2020.
Tulsi Gabbard: If somebody is going to break out it could be her. She’s young, attractive, a military combat vet, relatively moderate (which means solidly leftist in today’s Dem context), non-PC, and articulate. She also surfs.
But she’s new to the national game, a tad earnest, and could be easy pickings for the older party cutthroats. Also, being from Hawaii won’t get her any big state momentum. She’s having some campaign personnel issues right now and that could tell later if her effort becomes a revolving door.
Be sure to watch her early. If she starts to run hot in Iowa and follows that up with a good showing in New Hampshire things could get interesting. That happens and it might be hard to keep her off the national ticket. Harris should be worried. Odds? 11 to 1.
Beto O’Rourke: The perfect candidate for mentally challenged millennials and fanboys of all ages, the very Irish Mr. O’Rourke is trying to pull a Bobby Kennedy thing probably without the emotionally fragile starlet affair gambit, as his testosterone level doesn’t seem to allow him that option. He got too close to hurting Ted Cruz in Texas last time out and that got him national attention, especially from the Hollywood crowd. But since then he’s just gotten strange. His odd social media trip to the dentist and the emerging video of him in his band days, festooned in a onesie and sheep head, doesn’t exactly spell presidential timber. Though he was playing the Ramones, so he should get kind of a break. He seems to have this need, fatal and pathetic in some pols, to be liked and that brings out the attention whore in him. Maybe just running for veep, as are most on this list, as even he knows if he charges in too hard in the debates he could alienate the wrong people. Plus, others in the lead of this particular scrum could rhetorically chomp him for breakfast without missing a breath. 12 to 1.
Cory Booker: Now here’s a truly dumb race hustler of the first order. Kind of like a Jesse Jackson of this era, except that Jackson was always too cynical to believe his own press releases. But not Cory. His befuddled look as he aimlessly wanders around the Senate searching for a camera indicates a man who would be out of his depth in a parking lot puddle. He’s hoping the identity politics mavens of the Dems demand a minority on the bottom of the ticket if the top slot is filled by a dreaded Caucasian. He’s praying a female of any sort won’t fit that entire bill. So if they nominate Hillary, if she runs, or Biden or Warren he will be expecting a call. However, he really doesn’t bring much to the table, as Dems already have the black vote and New Jersey. So, that call may never come. Quel dommage. 15 to 1.
Kirsten Gillibrand: This lass was almost considered a moderate not too long ago. So now she has to go around tugging on her forelock and explaining how wrong she was. She’s telegenic enough, but overplays it, as when, at 52, she recently described herself as a “young mom.” If Hillary doesn’t run she’s hoping to fill the Blonde Ambition billet, though it seems that lots of Hillary’s team is joining the Harris effort. She’s a bit slow on the uptake during interviews and also easily confused on policy minutiae. But she’s not alone, as the vast majority of pols, on both sides of the aisle, have the working cognitive abilities of a woodchuck. 16 to 1.
Julian Castro: It looks like Dem Latins have developed the bad practice, as the blacks have since the 80s and the aforementioned Reverend, of running an official candidate that everyone knows will lose but who may get a good cabinet slot if they put up a decent show. Welcome to this guy. He’s your average poverty pimp who thinks we’re in a Trumpian Police State, not stopping to think that if so, how is he not under at least house arrest. Nothing special to look at or hear, we’re approaching the bottom of the barrel. 20 to 1.
Amy Klobuchar: An apparently nice lady. Kind of like your adorable aunt with strange political views running for the School Board. Odds so bad as not able to be mathematically computed.
Jay Inslee and Sherrod Brown: What? Who?
Pete Buttigieg: The gay mayor of South Bend, Indiana, whose last name and city of residence could launch a thousand Carnac jokes, he would be, if elected, the first openly gay president of the United States. Emphasis there on the word “openly.”
My immature humor aside, who cares who he sleeps with? Not a factor unless he makes it one to try and get token points with PC-crazed Dems. He’s also a Rhodes Scholar and a U.S. Navy Afghanistan war veteran. Good for him. Bad for him that he’s a political nobody from a Midwest cowtown that happens to have an allegedly Catholic university that is traditionally inspiring in football and lately non-inspiring in everything else.
So there you have it, the also-rans. You’ll hear and see them nipping at the heels of the big dogs. One of them may even emerge from the pack. But more than not you’re looking at, if the Dems bounce Trump, future HUD and Commerce secretaries.
After all the hassle of running for president? What a rip.
