According to the South China Morning Post, the country is testing advanced computers that will change international politics forever. Diplomacy is compared to a tabletop game where the computer “analyses previous play, learns lessons from defeats or even repeatedly plays against itself to devise a strategy that can be never thought of before by humans.”
In the past, computer programs have played and won games of Go, Chess, and Texas Hold’em. Now, several prototypes are being used by Chinese ministries that are designed to process large amounts of information ranging from recorded gossip to satellite imagery. The program is designed to then check or present options to diplomats. All this supposedly happens in the blink of an eye. But if asked for my opinion, I find the technology worship fails on a number of levels that center on the human element, cultural affinity and over-reliance on technology, and what I call a failure of the zombie test.
Even though the South China Morning Post stressed these programs will support human decision-makers who have the final say, this seems like a false promise. More so than many other government activities, diplomacy is an activity centered on humans. George W. Bush famously looked into Putin’s eyes, Trump got into hot water for his too nice on Russia press conference, and even the smallest activity participated in, all the way down to some after-hour drinks at a conference, affects international relations.
While the computer might be able to process large amounts of information, it doesn’t replace the human touch and in some cases might be utterly incapable of assessing or predicting irrational choices. (At this point most of the mainstream media would insert a gratuitous comment about the age of incivility ushered in by Trump.) On top of lacking the human touch, improper data input could mean flaws in the output—garbage in, garbage out. This could be something as simple as a bug in the software, or careless data entry by an overworked, underpaid, and under-trained staffer. Even leaving aside human error in creating the data, during a time when Facebook can’t stop fake news posts, it is unlikely a computer program can use mined electronic data to give proper solutions to an international crisis in the South China Sea.
China has an over-reliance on and unearned confidence in robots that extends to many places of its society. The New York Times reported on some of the issues created by this problem, stating that, “The mind-reading headsets won’t read minds. The fire-detecting machine has been declared a safety hazard. The robot waiter can’t be trusted with the soup.” While all of these technological advances sound amazing, they often end up like Howard Stark’s flying car in the fictional Captain America. They quickly crash.
The final piece for me in rejecting the “game changing” nature of the article in the South China Morning Post regards what I call the zombie test. I wrote a short time ago that the US is testing advanced robots and cyber network equipment that continues to fail the zombie test. Like the diplomat that shares a drink, the beating heart of a human is the center of battle. That heart is affected by illogical factors like perception, viewpoint, and incomplete information, all things that can’t be replicated by a computer. In the fictional zombie apocalypse, the over-reliance on technology and failure to support the infantrymen resulted in stunning losses across the world. But the re-emphasis on infantry training, reliable and effective rifles, sound tactics, and excellent small-unit leaders turned the tide.
In many cases China is embracing technology for technology’s sake, and they are in danger of failing the zombie test, where they rely too much on technology to the detriment of the human factor. Technology should be sought after and employed, but supposed technological silver bullets are a dime a dozen and they often replace battle-tested strategies that later prove to be more resilient and effective than dazzling technology.
