In this last part of our look at the geopolitical prognosis for next year, let’s turn to the Middle East and its seemingly unsolvable problems. We look to antiquity for an answer.
Legend has it that Alexander the Great came upon a knot at Gordium in Phrygia in the fourth century BC. Phrygia was then part of the Persian Empire that Alexander was in the course of conquering, along with a large part of the known world. It had been tied by Midas, son of King Gordias, to an oxcart. The knot was comprised of “several knots all so tightly entangled that it was impossible to see how they were fastened,” according to Roman historian Quintus Curtius Rufus. A local oracle had declared that he who could undo the knot would go on to rule over all of Asia. Since Alexander was well on his way to doing this already, the story is a bit superfluous. But it’ll illustrate my point.
Sources dispute whether he undid it by just slicing it with his sword or pulled the linchpin from the oxcart yoke. But he did it. Just as the Israelis for seventy years have undone the Middle Eastern strategic knot by beating their enemies in every war from their independence to today. Victory usually solves things. But their knot expertise is ignored because every time they go to the conference table Israel is asked to give up more, as if she had lost wars on a regular basis. It’s the only case I know of where a victor has been treated as a loser and accepted that treatment.
From its 1948 War of Independence, to 1956 in Suez, to the 1967 Six-Day War, to the 1973 Yom Kippur War, to the various actions since, though not always immediately ascendant, Israel has always come out on top regardless of the bellowing hyperbole of its enemies like Nasser or the opera bouffe military bravado of its various foes. Nixon stripping NATO of supplies in 1973 to help Golda Meir hold on didn’t hurt either.
I admit my bias on this issue, as Kamioners reside in Israel. They are a small remnant of a large pre-WWII Polish- Jewish family who perished in the death camps of the Third Reich. My father was the son of one of only two siblings of eight who escaped before the war. While I converted to Roman Catholicism in my 30s, my devotion to Israel remains undiminished. That commitment colors my analysis. In such, I tend to take an Ari Ben Canaan view of things.
Hence I wonder how those Americans who decry Israeli actions would react if hundreds of rockets were shot from Tijuana into Tucson, as they are from Gaza into Israel by Hamas, resulting in constant U.S. casualties. But, I digress.
When we look at the area in 2019, the challenges are myriad. We are still in the quicksand boxes of Iraq and Afghanistan, the former falling more and more under the influence of Iran. Not exactly what we hoped for when we foolishly invaded that charred godforsaken hellhole in Asia Minor. As for Afghanistan, we should have done to it what Rome did to Carthage and just left. It is a language the locals understand well. The UN, with its humanitarian pretensions, could have cleaned up the mess.
Iran herself seeks regional hegemony and tests us at many instances for it. This while on her way to manufacturing nuclear weapons and the delivery systems to effectively use them. If she ever did, and Israel saw one incoming missile alert then, given Israel possesses the best ABM systems in the world, Iran would launch for naught while committing suicide in the same breath. If one got through, or many for that matter, Israel has expressly, as she did in the Yom Kippur War, stated that the Samson Option would be on the table. For those with even a passing knowledge of the Samson story in the Bible, that option is not a hard one to figure out.
But there is good news as well.
President Trump’s action of moving our embassy to Jerusalem was a long overdue recognition of reality and gave end notice to the last administration’s shameful and spineless loyalty to radical Islamist extremists. Other countries have followed suit. An alliance of convenience is growing between Israel, Jordan, Egypt, the Gulf States, and Saudi Arabia. This indirectly includes us. It is aimed to contain Iran and her designs not only in the area, but her potential stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz. Their nipping at our heels with speedy little gunboats notwithstanding, that alliance is acting as a deterrent to the Iranians. Proving its efficacy is the fact that said nipping hasn’t turned into bites, lest the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet blow their whole maritime force out of the water in fifteen minutes. China’s new naval base near there could only watch.
ISIS is destroyed as a state entity and now will crawl back under the rock from which it came, engage in sporadic terrorism, and take credit for every shouting lunatic who passes murderous muster. But we, especially in Africa allied with the French, are chasing the last of them down into the farthest reaches of damnation. The West Bank and Gaza, owned by two separate yet equally corrupt groups, continue to be at each other’s throats. Israel, with the help of Jordan, gives public and covert help to the Palestinian Authority (PA) and compromises them with their irredentist pals like Hamas. Syria is a shell-pockmarked terrordome and a conduit for a Russian presence and influence. Yemen is in a proxy war between Iran and the Sauds. It will keep going until the Sauds eventually win. Lebanon continues to be a husk of its former beautiful and cosmopolitan self, maimed by decades upon decades of war, civil and otherwise.
And what of the knot? As much of it stems from irrational hatred and aggression towards Israel, does she have a solution in hand? Yes. I propose she again cut the knot. But this time, see it stays cut by a retaking of Gaza and a relocation of its people to another venue that, by generous Israeli financial incentives, will take them. If Hamas won’t go then the deal is made better in the long term by the necessary action against them. This would be a PR nightmare. But better that than artillery falling on Israel forevermore. At that point, offer the PA a deal. A peace treaty and alliance. Borders remain in place. But the PA can stay where they are with increased Israeli support, or, if they can be trusted (a tall order), give them Gaza. Now onto the big knot.
With our approval and aid Israel should plan and launch strikes at the Iranian nuclear program, Iranian airfields, and Revolutionary Guard compounds much like the 1967 preemptive strike against Arab air forces. Again, catch them with their pants down. Not so easy as it was in ’67, but possible.
Simultaneously execute a replay of our operation against Mosaddegh in 1953. This should be an allied Intel and commando op ushering in a temporary military government until elections could be held. Personnel and materials from the allies named above could be used in conjunction with the visible and growing Iranian resistance. The Brits and the French could help as well. The Mossad would take the lead, as they have more human assets on the ground in Iran than everybody else put together.
Palestinians neutralized or placated. Russians outplayed. China impotent. Iran neutered. Knot undone.
Yup, sometimes war is the answer.
Effect on US: A significant decrease over time in our security aid to Israel and Egypt, saving many billions of dollars. Oil to our allies safeguarded. Economic growth takes the place military preparedness once did in the economies of the Middle East. Better relations with most nations of the region. An emerging Arab middle class starts to contemplate some sort of representative government along their own cultural lines and political history.
But most of all the benefit is at least a long respite from the interminable peace conference upon peace treaty upon shuttle diplomacy upon hostage negotiation upon failed initiatives this nation has engaged in there since the Nixon administration. I swear, you could take a 1979 headline like “Palestinians in Uproar, as Israel Braces for more Terrorist Attacks, while Iran Denounces America” and run it today. No one would know the difference.
It has taken since the seventies to cement the Israeli-Egyptian peace and will likely take decades more to work out all of the consequences of these proposed actions. Though when that transpires we can finally lay to rest all the ghosts of Balfour, Sykes-Picot, Count Bernadotte, Camp David, Oslo, etc., and move on to issues where the knot has been not tied with such a century-old precision.
