The common narrative right now is that Democrats are going to enjoy a blue wave in November, sweeping Republicans from the House and possibly even the Senate. The momentum for this blue wave is supposedly coming from disapproval of President Trump. In truth, the president’s approval rating is a bit low with Real Clear Politics reporting 44 percent, versus 52.7 percent who disapprove. And yet, the Grand Old Party (GOP) has seen its approval rating surge to the highest point in seven years.
A Gallup poll released on Monday found that 45 percent of Americans approve of the GOP. This might not sound all too high, but the GOP suffered approval ratings of just 38 percent in recent months, and back in 2014, they had fallen all the way to 28 percent. Such a low number suggests that many staunch Republicans were losing faith in the GOP. However, with the midterms heating up, Judge Brett Kavanaugh has found himself in the toughest confirmation fight in recent memory.
The GOP has never enjoyed approval of more than 61 percent, which came in the months after September 11th, when Americans rallied together to face terrorist threats. This hints at just how partisan the United States is. Traumatic events often rally people, even if temporarily. Likewise, while Trump is loathed by Democrats, he still enjoys the support of most Republicans.
My Take: Blue Wave or Missed Opportunity?
As a liberal and tentative Democrat, I’d much rather buy into the inevitable blue wave narrative. However, the data is cloudy indeed. A survey jointly produced by NBC News-Wall Street Journal found that Democrats lead Republicans 52 percent to 40 percent. This is data I want to believe.
If Democrats do win big come November, it’ll be less an issue of popularity and more of voter turnout. Through the primaries so far, Democrats have been turning out in record numbers. However, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) has thus far proven insular to the demands of its constituents, which could alienate progressives, lowering turnout.
Ideologically, I agree with many (but certainly not all) of the platforms of centrist Democrats. Morally, however, I think a lot of centrist Democrats are compromised, at the very least. Still, many progressives are too far left on the spectrum for my tastes, and yet, it’s not hard to recognize that in many areas of the country, Democratic supporters are trending towards progressives.
And still the DNC has largely pushed back against progressives, pouring in funds to support centrists and trying to pressure progressives into dropping out. Going against the will of voters strikes me as political suicide. The general narrative among the DNC has been that progressive candidates can’t win general elections. Newsflash: centrist Democrats have been getting curb-stomped at the state and federal level over the last decade.
Barack Obama, a president I generally liked, suffered the worst losses at the Congressional and state level of any Democrat throughout two terms. Those Democrats were largely moderate Democrats, like myself. And yet, from 2008 to 2016, Democratic state representatives dropped from over 4,000 to just over 3,000, while Republicans enjoyed a mirror opposite surge. In the Senate, Democrats lost 10 percent of their seats, while in the House they lost 20 percent.
Democrats tried “playing it safe.” They got stomped. Come November, the DNC may be playing with fire. As I mentioned earlier, the midterms will likely be decided by turnout. If progressives stay home because they feel shafted by the DNC, the party can forget about its blue wave; they’ll be fortunate to enjoy a trickle.
