During his visit to Jerusalem on August 22, U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton raised eyebrows when he shared that Russia was doubting its own ability to remove Iranian influences from the Syrian conflict.
Russian President Vladimir Putin had allegedly pronounced that he would like to order Iran out of Syria, but “I can’t do it myself.” Putin had elaborated in a conversation with President Trump that while it was a Russian interest to compel the Islamic Republic to leave Syrian territory, his interests and Iran’s were “not exactly the same.”
Bolton’s words signal a paradigm shift in how the United States and its western allies view Iran’s activities in Syria. Ever since the bloody Syrian war began showing signs of coming to an end, the West—and especially Israel—has been pressuring Russia to force Iran to remove its forces and military infrastructure.
As the United States sees it, allowing Iran to entrench itself on Israel’s Golan Heights border would be a recipe for disaster. Iran could exploit Syrian territory to transfer game-changing weapons to the Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah militia, leading to a destabilizing war with Israel and devastating U.S. interests.
As part of the anti-Iran effort, Israel has repeatedly bombed Iranian weapons shipments to Syria as well as other key military infrastructure. Trump has also told Putin that U.S. troops will remain in Syria until the Iranians fully withdraw.
As such, both the U.S. and Israel view Russia as the deciding factor on how the curtain will fall on the Syrian war. This view seems logical: after all, Russia is the dominant military power in Syria, with 50,000 infantry troops stationed there as well as back-up from its Air Force, Special Forces, and 15 war ships. The world views Russia as first among the military hierarchy in Syria, followed by Iran and only then by Syria itself.
However, recent events demonstrate that Iran might in fact be the major player in the Syrian theater. In a recent paper by the Israel Institute of National Security Studies, researcher Orit Perlov concluded that “Iran dictates the fighting on the ground by the pro-Assad coalition, controls the Syria-Iraq and Syria-Lebanon border crossings, and tailors the re-organization of areas and communities based on an ethnic element.
“Iran wields much—and often decisive—influence on the pace of fighting, in consultation with Russia and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.”
Simply put, Iran’s large number of unconnected militias have taken on a mind of their own, and are pursuing Iranian interests against the wishes of both Syria and Russia.
Iran’s military efforts consist of multiple actors: The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Syrian National Defense Forces, Hezbollah, and an allotment of local Shiite militias.
These forces are buttressed by the 90,000 strong Syrian National Defense Forces (NDF). Comprised mainly of Shiites and Alawites, the NDF is directly controlled by Iranian Revolutionary Guards Commander Qassem Sulemeini.
The aforementioned militias show evidence of completely disregarding both Syrian and Russia interests. Most recently, a gun battle broke out between the Syrian military and the Iranian-backed Afghan Fatemiyoun Division in the eastern Al-Bukamal region that killed at least 25, including an Iranian General. Following the fighting, Iranian forces refused to vacate the city that lies on the Syria-Iraq border, and threatened to destroy any of Assad’s troops that attempted to dislodge them from the strategic area.
This episode illustrates the growing Iranian assertiveness in Syria, which could potentially complicate Russian attempts to compel Iran troops to withdraw. In addition, Iran signed a massive treaty with Syria on August 27 that will drastically widen its influence. The deal stipulates that Iran will rebuild Syria’s military and its depleted civilian infrastructure, with a price tag that reportedly stretches into the tens of billions of dollars.
Notably, the deal completely cuts out any Russian role. Upon announcing the treaty, Iranian Defense Minister Amir Hatami said that it would expand Iran’s “presence, participation and assistance,” adding that “no third party will be influential in this issue.” Many took the latter statement to be an explicit reference to Russia.
Iran also controls some of Syria’s most strategic areas, which would make it significantly harder for Russia to dislodge the Iranians by force. These areas include major cities such as Aleppo, Deir ez-Zor and Hezbollah-controlled areas near the Lebanese border nicknamed the “Q Zone”—Quneitra, Qalamoun, and al Qusayr.
A Russian military source confirmed to Al-Monitor in July that Russia would have serious problems ridding Syria of Iran, due to Iran’s cooption of the Syrian military. The source added that Russian efforts have been complicated since Iran distributed large amounts of property to its militias near Allepo and other strategic regions, saying that “the facts prove that Iran has already sprouted its roots in those regions.”
In conclusion, it is not clear that Russia is the right address for Israel and the West. While Russia retains military superiority, Iran is becoming increasingly assertive, and has demonstrated that it will not hesitate to pursue its interests against the wishes of Russia.
