“If Catalonia were to leave Spain, not only would roughly 20 percent of Spain’s gross domestic product disappear overnight, but it would also raise the possibility that other autonomous regions might be interested in national self-determination too.”
The autonomous Spanish community of Catalonia held an independence referendum on Oct. 1. Madrid’s heavy handed approach to prevent that from happening may serve to only further Catalonia’s position that their future lies not with Spain but with themselves. Spain is on the verge of a major political crisis that it has no way of solving.
With a population of 7.5 million, its capital is the proud city of Barcelona. Catalonia is Barcelona, the glittering planned capital, host of the Olympics in 1992, the event that brought the city to the world stage, and home to the Sagrada Familia, Antoni Gaudi’s huge and still unfinished cathedral.
The region is an economic powerhouse, in effect subsidizing the rest of the country. Its 7.5 million people, some 16 percent of the population of Spain, generate nearly 20 percent of the country’s GDP. Were it a country it would rank in economic size somewhere between Denmark and Finland.
As for Barcelona itself, its port is the biggest in the Mediterranean, and the fourth largest cruise ship destination in the world. Catalonia attracts one third of inward investment into Spain, and produces one third of Spain’s exports.
Without Catalonia, Spain would continue to be the fourth largest economy in the Eurozone, after Germany, France and Italy, but it would be much weakened. By contrast Scotland’s share of UK GDP is 7.5 percent, so in economic terms this is a much bigger deal for Spain than Scottish independence would be for the UK. You can see why Madrid opposes the referendum.
But what about the EU? Here the Spanish government has made it clear that were Catalonia to become independent, it would resist it remaining a member of the EU. This would be most unpopular in Catalonia, which would want, among other things, to retain the Euro.
Catalonia has been part of Spain since its genesis in the 15th century, when King Ferdinand of Aragon and Queen Isabella of Castile married and united their realms
This standoff is only the latest expression of an issue between Madrid and Barcelona that is almost a millennium old: the Catalan people’s desire to rule themselves. Present-day Catalonia has a culture, language and history that is unique and all its own. It has preserved this identity despite losing multiple wars for self-rule, and despite periods of intense suppression.
History
The area first emerged as a distinct entity with the rise of the County of Barcelona to pre-eminence in the 11th century. In the 12th century, the county was brought under the same royal rule as the neighboring kingdom of Aragon, going on to become a major medieval sea power.
Catalonia has been part of Spain since its genesis in the 15th century, when King Ferdinand of Aragon and Queen Isabella of Castile married and united their realms.
Initially retaining its own institutions, the region was ever more tightly integrated into the Spanish state, until the 19th century ushered in a renewed sense of Catalan identity, which flowed into a campaign for political autonomy and even separatism. The period also saw an effort to revive Catalan, long in decline by then, as a language of literature.
When Spain became a republic in 1931, Catalonia was soon given broad autonomy. During the Spanish Civil War, Catalonia was a key Republican stronghold, and the fall of Barcelona to Gen Francisco Franco’s right-wing forces in 1939 marked the beginning of the end of Spanish resistance to him.
Under Franco’s ultra-conservative rule, autonomy was revoked, Catalan nationalism repressed and use of the Catalan language restricted.
Independence Moves
The pendulum swung back with the emergence of a democratic Spain after Franco’s death. Catalonia now has is its own parliament and executive – together known as the “Generalist” in Catalan – with extensive autonomy.
If Catalonia goes ahead with the referendum, and afterwards declares independence, passing a new constitution, and possibly establishing regional Ministries and even armed forces, Madrid will probably trigger Article 155, and tensions are likely to escalate rapidly
Nationalist fervor soared in 2010 after a ruling by Spain’s constitutional court that set limits on Catalan claims to nationhood. The region’s president at the time, Jose Mantilla, said the ruling had “attacked the dignity of Catalans.” Spain’s painful economic crunch has fueled enthusiasm for sovereignty.
Many Catalans believe the affluent region pays more to Madrid than it gets back, and blame much of Spain’s 2008 debt crisis on the central government.
The Spanish leadership has rejected the referendum vote as illegal and the courts have ordered a halt. Spanish police have arrested senior Catalan officials, seized ballots and raided key regional buildings in an attempt to stop it going ahead.
Catalans have taken to the streets in protest. So what has stirred this hunger for independence – and could it happen?
What Happens if Catalonia Declares Independence?
Catalan President Carles Puigdemont suggested that if the “yes” vote wins, the government might declare independence within days. “In these hugely intense and hugely emotional moments, we sense that what we once thought was only a dream is within reach,” Puigdemont told a cheering crowd.
If Catalonia goes ahead with the referendum, and afterwards declares independence, passing a new constitution, and possibly establishing regional Ministries and even armed forces, Madrid will probably trigger Article 155, and tensions are likely to escalate rapidly. In turn, this could affect negatively consumer and investor confidence, harming the economy and leading to broader political and economic consequences that are hard to predict at this stage.
Catalonia’s referendum could also pose an existential threat to Spain as we know it. Consider that today; Spain is divided into 19 autonomous regions. Catalonia is one of the most autonomous – it is one of the few regions to have its own police force.
If Catalonia were to leave Spain, not only would roughly 20 percent of Spain’s gross domestic product disappear overnight, but it would also raise the possibility that other autonomous regions might be interested in national self-determination too.
Should that happen, some have argued there’s a chance the Spanish government can choose to invoke Article 155, which allows the Spanish government to intervene directly in autonomous regions like Catalonia, according to the Financial Times. It has never been invoked.
Also notably, if Catalonia were to leave, it would have to reapply for EU membership, which Spain can block.
Legally, Spain would be able to push an independent Catalonia out, but in the real world of European politics it would be hard for the rest of Europe to exclude a country that wanted to remain a member – or to be technically more correct, to rejoin. In economic terms Catalonia will be fully viable and there is no practical reason why it should not continue to use the Euro, even if technically it were for a time outside the EU.
It is little wonder, then, that the Spanish government, unable to halt the referendum through political means, has in recent weeks responded with force. It has arrested Catalan politicians, put Catalonia’s 17,000-strong Mossos d’Esquadra police force under the control of the Spanish Interior Ministry, dispatched additional Spanish police to Catalonia, and carried out police raids to seize ballots and other referendum materials. Spain’s president declared that his forces would do “all that is necessary” to prevent the vote from taking place.
The obvious big question really is not so much the outcome of the referendum but whether Spain and Catalonia can rebuild their relationship. If they cannot do so, then Catalonia becomes a threat not just to Spain but to the EU as a whole, in some ways a greater threat than the departure of the UK.
One of the lessons of the past couple of years is not just that politics have become unpredictable; it is also the economic consequences of a political event are unpredictable too. By rights the decision or non-decision of 7.5 million people ought not to unsettle Europe. But a week from now it may look very different.
