American spy satellites have caught Chinese ships smuggling oil to North Korea in spite of Chinese promises to implement an international embargo. It looks like a case of China undermining North Korea sanctions.
China has agreed to U.S. and UN embargoes on oil as part of worldwide efforts to stop North Korean nuclear missile development. The satellite evidence is highly embarrassing to the Chinese government, because it casts doubt on the sincerity of their efforts to stop nuclear proliferation.
Ship-to-Ship Transfers Off the Chinese Coast
The South Korean daily Chosun Ilbo reported Tuesday that Chinese ships have been seen by reconnaissance satellites transferring oil to North Korean tankers. Over 30 transfers have been detected since October, according to government sources in Seoul. The transfers have taken place in the Yellow Sea (or West Sea, as it is called in Korea).
If China itself is undermining the sanctions, the implications for U.S. policy are ominous.
The satellite imagery is so detailed that it has captured the names of the ships involved in the smuggling. The smuggling has taken place close to the Chinese coast, after China agreed in September to impose sanctions on North Korea. This calls into question China’s true commitment to preventing North Korean attempts to develop nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
A United Nations resolution (#2375) specifically forbids transfers from ship to ship, anticipating this type of smuggling. It is difficult to enforce the ban, however, unless the Chinese government makes a serious effort to prevent it. A continued high volume of Chinese oil smuggling is especially troubling to U.S. policy makers.
Transferring oil from one tanker to another at sea is one of many methods North Korea uses to evade sanctions.
American policy depends on Chinese pressure to stop North Korean nuclear aggression. China’s leaders have said repeatedly that they are doing all they can to pressure Pyongyang, but have claimed that their influence is waning. This evidence shows that at best, they are not making their best efforts. At worst, it suggests they are playing a double game.
Techniques for Sanctions Evasion
Transferring oil from one tanker to another at sea is one of many methods North Korea uses to evade sanctions. It highlights the difficulty of enforcing sanctions, and the frustration of American leaders who are trying to stop the nuclear weapons program without declaring war. U.S. diplomats and military planners believe that China could force North Korea to stop its weapons program, but that Chinese leaders are not really serious.
The United Nations issued a report in September, outlining the most common techniques used to circumvent sanctions. The South China Morning Post reported in September that there are eight common methods. The most basic is bartering, to avoid traceable money transfers.
Smuggling is the second most-used circumvention. Chinese, Russian or other ships nearing North Korean waters turn off their tracking signals, load North Korean goods, then continue to a neighboring country such as Russia. The goods are then sold on the international market as if they were made in Russia, to follow this example.
Other techniques include falsified shipping documents which mask the origin of ships and goods; front companies that allow for foreign bank accounts; and money laundering. North Korea also is notorious for using diplomatic cover for commercial purposes, and for money laundering and banking.
Arms smuggling is a specialized North Korean skill. China is implicated in several instances of arms smuggling also. One example from September 2017 was reported by Japan’s daily Asahi Shimbun, as quoted by Chosun Ilbo.
Asahi Shimbun reported, “High-grade tungsten and aluminum alloy was sent by the Chinese company to North Korea’s central science, technology and trade company.” Quoting a source, the paper continued, “It is possible that Chinese government officials turned a blind eye to the transaction.”
Not an Isolated Incident
The Japanese paper said this was not an isolated incident. “According to a South Korean defense expert who tracks trends in North Korea, a dozen or so companies in China have cooperated with North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile development through trade links.”
The evidence of Chinese smuggling is highly troubling to American diplomats and war planners. Most see Chinese influence with North Korea as one of few realistic means to avoid the outbreak of war. If China itself is undermining the sanctions, the implications for U.S. policy are ominous.
Expect some very direct conversations between the Trump administration and the Chinese government. If China does not act once and for all to curb smuggling and sanctions violations, it will have missed an opportunity to prevent Pyongyang’s nuclear aggression. It also will have eliminated one more option for avoiding war on the Korean peninsula.
