After the Chinese leadership refused to meet with the South Korean leader during his four-day visit, they asked an insightful question: “[W]hy is it that for such a big country, there is hardly any neighbor that can be described as China’s friend?” This question reveals a critical flaw in China’s geopolitical situation that could be incredibly dangerous.
China is a growing power and their military dwarfs their neighbors, but those neighbors are beginning to challenge China’s supremacy—they could form a block that surrounds and contains China. The danger comes from being in a situation similar to Germany’s prior to World War I, in that a Chinese fear of being surrounded could create an unstable doomsday machine of alliances and counter-alliances that plunge the world into war.
Before World War I, Germany constantly worried about encirclement. As a result, they aggressively pursued their interests with their neighbors around them. But it often backfired. The First and Second Moroccan Crises sparked international outrage and led to a strengthening of the bonds between Britain and France against Germany.
The Balkan Wars of 1912 and 1913 destabilized Eastern Europe and made Russia even more interested in supporting its remaining ally in the region against Germany and Austria-Hungary. Germany began to maneuver in an effort to avoid entrapment—this resulted in a strengthening of alliances against them. It was what Henry Kissinger called a doomsday machine that plunged the world into catastrophic warfare.
China claims they are addressing their rights and defending their sovereignty. But they are doing so by aggressively disputing land and maritime territories with most of their neighbors, including South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, India, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia. Much like Germany before World War I, these actions end up being counterproductive.
Disputes over the Senkaku Islands have caused the Japanese population to coalesce in favor of a stiff response. Vietnam is specifically building forces meant to counter Chinese strength and is actively seeking allies that face the same threats from China, including India, Japan, and even the U.S. An American aircraft carrier recently visited the country, which represents a shift in Vietnamese relations.
South Korea resisted Chinese pressure and allowed America to deploy Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) missiles. These missiles are a key defensive weapon system against China’s preferred strategy: overwhelming amounts of missiles to deny access or destroy American forces. India had a tense ten-week standoff during the summer in a critical strategic area connecting mainland India to its North Eastern states, but it was the Chinese that backed down.
Military analysts at the Hoover Institute call this situation China’s Achilles heel. The fear of a string of allied territories surrounding them could temper their rhetoric and lead to more cooperation. If they end up like pre-World War I Germany, however, they will try to win allies by aggressively pursuing their interests in border disputes, which will end up creating the anti-Chinese block they fear. We can only hope that these alliances, numerous flash points, and border disputes don’t trigger another world war.
