By Jon Harris:
President Trump has called for North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members to contribute more to the alliance or face the possibility that the US would “moderate” its level of support. He also suggested that NATO itself has become obsolete, and that NATO focuses on defending Europe against Russia rather than combating terrorism.
Currently, the US supplies three-quarters of the NATO budget. On September 5, 2014 NATO issued a declaration following the alliance’s summit in Newport, Wales that all members would spend 2% of their GDP on the support of the organization. Washington has long insisted that NATO members should spend 2% of their GDP on defense—a goal that few NATO members have met since agreeing to do so in Wales.
Only five of NATO’s 28 member states reached the alliance goal of 2% last year. As of 2016, only four member states met those commitments, with the US topping the list at 3.61%.
The Ultimatum
President Trump has set the stage for NATO to increase its support and budget among the member states of the organization. He has approached this in a very pointed and thoughtful way. He is letting NATO know that the US will operate from a position of strength, and in this light, he wielded the biggest influence the US has as it pertains to NATO, which is funding. The leaders of NATO are clear that the organization cannot exist without the backing and military might of the US.
This was made clear in a statement by Jonathan Eyal, a defense and security expert at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute. “While there is a lot of discussion about closer cooperation in the European Union, there simply is no substitute for American military power. Up to 75% of all the military assets in NATO belong to the United States.”
The Messengers
In Vice President Pence’s first major foreign policy address for the Trump administration, he told European leaders that he spoke for Trump when he promised “unwavering” commitment to the NATO alliance. “Today, on behalf of President Trump, I bring you this assurance the United States of America strongly supports NATO and will be unwavering in our commitment to this transatlantic alliance.” He also repeated the US call for more defense spending in return. “As you keep faith with us, under President Trump, we will always keep faith with you.”
Jim Mattis, President Trump’s defense secretary, bluntly stated, “I owe it to you to give you clarity on the political reality in the United States and to state the fair demand from my country’s people in concrete terms. America will meet its responsibilities, but if your nations do not want to see America moderate its commitment to the alliance, each of your capitals needs to show its support for our common defense. No longer can the American taxpayer carry a disproportionate share of the defense of Western values. Americans cannot care more for your children’s security than you do. Disregard for military readiness demonstrates a lack of respect for ourselves, for the alliance, and for the freedoms we inherited, which are now clearly threatened.”
As of 2017, NATO consists of 28 countries. This is a large increase from the original 12 founding members when the alliance was created in 1949.
NATO was established to defend each other from the possibility of the communist Soviet Union taking control of their nation. That mission, although still a central part of NATO’s mission (though now substituting Russia for the USSR), has grown over the years. Many have seen this “mission creep” as a major issue. Expanding its tasks, NATO has taken on counter-terrorism and cyber warfare roles as well.
NATO has been steadily expanding its membership across Eastern Europe, while at the same time accepting responsibilities well outside of its original mandate. These new responsibilities have included directing the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan to “training missions” in Iraq, operating no-fly zones over Libya, and conducting anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden. These new missions are clearly outside of the original mandate. At the same time, NATO has also expanded its deployment in Eastern Europe. The immediate consequences have been a significant mismatch between its military capabilities and the external threats. NATO is trying to do too much with too little.
Results of President Trump’s Ultimatum
In a sign that the Trump administration’s pressure on the issue is bearing fruit, Jens Stoltenberg—a Norwegian politician and the secretary general of NATO—said, on the eve of the meeting, that boosting spending was a top priority. “The most important thing is that we increase defense spending, and that is exactly what we are doing.” Stoltenberg said the alliance in 2015 had stopped military budget cuts and last year increased spending by 3.8% (or $10 billion) but still needs to do more.
“We will stress the importance of fair burden-sharing and higher defense spending,” said Stoltenberg. He welcomed the news that defense spending among European Allies and Canada has increased by 3.8% in real terms in 2016—higher than expected. Ministers will also focus on the fight against terrorism and threats stemming from the Middle East and North Africa.
The UK
British Prime Minister Theresa May said she believes NATO should continue guaranteeing the security of Europe, but she thinks the alliance needs to be reformed. Speaking to Republican Party leaders during a visit to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania in January, May said, “So I share your president’s reform agenda and believe that, by working together, we can make those institutions more relevant and purposeful than they are today.”
The British leader also called on other NATO members to “step up and contribute as they should.” She noted that the UK is the only G20 country other than the United States to meet the target promise to spend 2% of GDP on defense. “At least 20% of this spending should be for military equipment,” she added. May said she already raised this issue with other European leaders and had urged them to meet the 2% defense spending goal.
The UK defense secretary, Michael Fallon, supports the push for other countries to raise defense spending to 2%, noting the comments of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis: “the impatience of the American taxpayer is a reality.”
Germany
“It is clear to Germany that we need to contribute more to the NATO alliance,” a spokesman for the Defense Ministry told The Local, the largest English-language news network in Europe, on Tuesday. He also stressed the contribution that the Bundeswehr (German military) is already making to European security.
As well as the troop commitment in Lithuania, Germany is a key contributor to the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF)—a highly mobile force of 5,000 soldiers set up to deter a Russian assault on smaller NATO members. The German air force has also been involved in policing air space over the Baltic region while contributing “significantly” to Multinational Corps Northeast (a military cooperation with Poland and Denmark), the spokesman added.
He warned, though, that for Germany to meet its NATO obligations, the government needs to increase military spending each year until 2030 continually. Anything less will mean that the country will spend less than the current 1.2% of the GDP on defense—already significantly below the 2% commitment made by NATO members.
However, a defense expert who also spoke to The Local expressed deep skepticism about Germany’s ability to forge a defense policy that would ensure European security. Describing the country’s leadership as “nuclear illiterates,” Dr. Gustav Gressel, a defense expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), argued, “Nuclear deterrence is one of the main contributions the US has given to Europe. This gap must be filled if the US does indeed withdraw.”
Way Forward
Trump’s comments have unsettled many in Europe; this is precisely what they were designed to do. Trump also spoke with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg earlier this month, and they agreed on the “enduring importance” of the Western alliance. The president has also spoken twice with British Prime Minister Theresa May and touched on the importance of NATO for European and US security.
What is clear is that President Trump’s stance on support for NATO and the US ultimatum to increase support have had the desired effect. NATO members are recommitting to the 2014 pledge of 2%, and several leaders expressed their agreement with the need for more spending at the summit.
Increasing defense budgets to meet those goals will take time. Added threats from Russia, expanding missions, and a larger organization are significant factors in the amount of spending NATO will need to fulfill its commitments, but with the clear and very straightforward statements from the Trump administration, NATO knows exactly what it has to do.
Jon Harris is an OpsLens contributor and former Army NCO, civilian law enforcement officer, and defense contractor with over 30 years in the law enforcement community. He holds a B.S. in Government and Politics and an M.S. in Criminal Justice.
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