Angela Merkel has served as the Chancellor of Germany since 2005, making her one of the longest established democratically elected leaders in the world. Unfortunately for Chancellor Merkel, her time may be running out. Not only are polls indicating that her support is slipping, but her allies lost ground in Bavaria as far right and leftist parties gained steam. Her ally party, the Christian Social Union, has seen its support decline from 47.7 percent to 37.2 percent. The leftist “Greens” pulled in 18 percent, while the Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) pulled in 10 percent, edging out the Social Democrats, another Merkel coalition ally.
Germans have been grumbling about Merkel for the past few years but the shrewd chancellor has managed to stay in control of Germany anyways. However, sharp losses in the prosperous but traditionally conservative Bavarian region hint that Germans are now taking their discontent to the voting booth. The conservative Christian Social Union (CSU) lost its majority in Bavaria despite having represented the region for most of the past seven decades.
As the CSU has declined, the left Greens surged to second place, pulling in 18.5 percent, while the far-right AfD garnered roughly 11 percent of the vote, ensuring representation in parliament. The AfD has been working to push Merkel from power and has used the massive influx of refugees over the past few years to fan the flames of discontent.
Merkel is not a member of the CSU but instead heads the Christian Democratic Union, which is generally seen as a bit more centrist and socially liberal. Regardless, Merkel has relied on the “union” between the CDU and CSU to maintain her position as chancellor. With the CSU suffering losses, many believe that she could be pushed out at the annual CDU’s annual conference come December.
Merkel’s quick descent is often attributed to the immigration crisis that has rocked Europe over the past few years. Polls suggest that that is partially correct but not the whole party. The right wing AfD has seen its support grow, but the leftist Green party has enjoyed even stronger growth. Interestingly, the Greens have been far more welcoming to immigration than the CSU/CDU.
So what’s going on? If anything, Germany is entering a period of radicalization with voters increasingly veering right and left. Centrist parties like the CSU/CDU now stand the most to lose and Merkel is now bearing the brunt of those losses. For Merkel, the clock is ticking at an ever increasing rate.
For Germany, the continued political polarization could lead to increasingly fractured politics. The CDU/CSU has been trying to cater to the needs of both left and right wing constituents but their centric politics seems to no longer appeal to either. Worse yet, the Greens and AfD are so far apart on policy, there is almost no way for them to comfortably coexist.
At 64 years old, Merkel’s political career is likely entering its twilight, no matter the election results. However, the recent elections suggest that Germany’s long rule under the center-right may also come to an end in the near future as Germans increasingly vote for more radical parties.
