Is the Islamic State defeated? Not yet. While reeling and lacking any firm territory, ISIS remains a potent force within Syria. That was made evident on Wednesday when four Americans —two uniformed soldiers, a civilian Department of Defense employee, and a military contractor— were killed in a suicide bombing. The Islamic State has since claimed responsibility for the attack.
The attack occurred in the Syrian city of Manbij and it appears that the Americans were killed during a routine patrol. Up until the bombing, just two Americans had been killed in Syria since 2014.
The attack came after the United States had declared ISIS defeated and its intent to withdraw from Syria, which resulted in the resignation of Defense Secretary James Mattis and upheaval within the Trump administration. Mattis had urged the president to stay committed to Syria and when he was rebuffed, he walked.
President Trump himself has made conflicting statements, both claiming that the withdrawal would be slow and not completed until ISIS was fully defeated, but likewise that he hoped to complete the withdrawal as quickly as possible.
National Security Advisor John Bolton has outlined numerous conditions that must be met before a withdrawal is agreed upon. Among the conditions is the demand that Kurdish forces, which have worked closely with the United States, remain protected and that Turkey not take any actions against them. Another is the eradication of the Islamic State.
The recent bombing suggests, however, that the Islamic State is still a potent force. The Pentagon believes that as many as 14,500 ISIS fighters remain in Syria. Once controlling a vast territory, complete with a functioning government, the Islamic State has since evolved into a more “traditional” terrorist group, striking from the shadows and blending in with civilian populations.
Ironically, the loss of the Islamic State’s territory may have made the group more dangerous. Not only are ISIS-aligned fighters now more desperate, with the evolving insurgent war lacking clear frontlines, it’s more difficult to find ISIS fighters. Even once found, military forces are risked with dangerous confrontations where civilians might be present.
The bombing has lead to an outpouring of criticism of President Trump’s decision to withdraw troops from Syria. Even some Republicans have denounced Trump’s withdrawal plans. On one hand, Republicans tend to lean more toward war and intervention. On the other hand, few have been willing to publicly challenge President Trump.
Lindsey Graham, who was long counted among Trump’s most staunch supporters, has warned that Trump’s decision to withdraw has emboldened ISIS. Graham served in the Air Force for over 30 years before retiring as a colonel. During Congressional recesses, he served in both Afghanistan and Iraq.
Former Governor Mike Huckabee also criticized the withdrawal, noting that Kurds would be left out to dry and Syrian Christians would be exposed. However, Trump has also found himself with some surprising allies, at least as far as withdrawal is concerned. Among several other Democratic Party senators, Elizabeth Warren, who has frequently clashed with the president, has voiced support for a withdrawal.
