“Despite the criticism of Merkel and her sinking support, a majority of voters support the idea of her remaining Chancellor”
The German election takes place today, with Chancellor Angela Merkel a heavy favorite to defend her position against Martin Schulz for a fourth term in power.
Exit polls are quick and highly accurate, and we should have a pretty clear idea of who has won shortly after voting ends. But the business of coalition building can take much longer, and it could be weeks or even months before a new government is formed.
What will happen in the German election?
Piotr Buras, head of the Warsaw office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, predicted that the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) will become the strongest party and that Angela Merkel will remain the Chancellor of Germany after the election.
“Despite the criticism of Merkel and her sinking support, a majority of voters support the idea of her remaining Chancellor,” he said last September at the height of the migrant crisis.
US President Donald Trump has said that Angela Merkel’s one “very catastrophic mistake” was “taking all of these illegals” during the migrant crisis. Merkel’s decision to open the doors to refugees, sparked protests across much of Germany,” If I could, I would turn back the time by many, many years, to prepare better,” she later admitted.
The Christian Democrats’ coalition partner, the Social Democrats (SPD), have struggled to turn the outrage over migration to its advantage. “The SPD support Merkel’s line even more strongly than her own party,” Buras said, noting that the party has suffered from being in a coalition for so long.
Polls currently show that Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party – with its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) – will be the largest party after the Bundestag election on 24 September, but will fall short of a majority.
This is common in Germany, and so the resulting parliament is in part determined by how the smaller parties perform, and which coalition possibilities will be born.
Attempts by the German media to smear the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), and its top leadership in the final stage of election campaign has backfired badly.
Just weeks ahead of the polls, the leading German newspapers produced a flurry of negative stories and hit-pieces portraying the AfD leaders as a bunch of migrant-hating “Islamophobes.” Instead of hurting the AfD’s electoral prospects, however, the smear campaign has ended up driving more voters toward the party.
Even the left-wing British newspaper The Guardian had to admit that “a series of scandals appear to have galvanized rather than weakened the chances of the far-right in next Sunday’s election.” The AfD could end up becoming the sole and legitimate opposition in the next German parliament, the newspaper added.
Should Merkel and her main challenger, Martin Schulz, agree to continue governing in a “grand coalition” between the two strongest parties, the AfD could lead the opposition in the Bundestag, a role that traditionally carries additional privileges, such as the presidency of the parliament’s budget committee.
Although the migrant crisis has mainly faded, the anti-migrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) has had a recent boost to 12 per cent in latest polls, is set to become the third largest party in the next German parliament.
But it is still down from their high of 15 percent in the first month of the year. The far-right AfD had hoped to make gains in the wake of the migrant crisis, the Brexit vote, and Donald Trump’s surprise victory last year. The wave of anti-EU populism seemed to ebb after Marine Le Pen lost the French election and Geert Wilders was defeated in the Dutch election
Given this momentum, there is a concerted effort underway by members of Merkel’s cabinet and the “establishment” parties to portray the AfD’s opposition to the Refugee Policy as something unconstitutional or even illegal.
Stay at home instead of vote for the right-wing party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), is the last-minute advice Chancellor Merkel’s chief of staff, Peter Altmaier, is giving to voters ahead of Sunday’s election in Germany.
“Better not vote than to vote for the AfD,” Merkel’s powerful right-hand man told the German newspaper Bild on Tuesday. “The AfD are dividing our country. They are exploiting people’s fears. Therefore, I believe that a vote for the AfD cannot be justified. “These are just a few rabble-rousers who profit from all the reporting on them,” he continued, urging the media to stop covering the AfD.
This political witch-hunt is accompanied by a campaign from the mainstream media to stigmatize support for the AfD.
“To support the AfD publicly in Germany leads to social and economic ostracism. It is almost like admitting to being a witch in the Middle Ages,” a German voter was quoted saying by the German broadcaster Deutsche Welle. “I am ashamed that I am not brave enough publicly to support the AfD. But it would be professional suicide and I will never see my grandchildren again,” confessed another anonymous German voter.
That fear could explain why more than a third of German voters are still telling pollsters that they are “undecided” — a surprisingly large number given the high stakes involved in this election.
The political ramifications will be decided today as Germans head to the polls. For months, it has been clear that barring any unusual development, Angela Merkel will remain chancellor of Germany following Sunday’s federal election. What will be determined by voters then is who will be with her in government, and who will be her chief opponent.
