Despite Republicans’ inability to replace ObamaCare, Trump may come out okay…
ObamaCare isn’t going to be repealed–not today, probably not any time soon–with Republicans forced to pull their proposed replacement at the last second. The would-be appeal died to a chorus of Democrats chanting “vote, vote, vote.” And while many are quick to label this as a Trump failure, I can’t help but wonder if it’s instead a moment of business savvy.
Trump made it clear to Congress: repeal the Affordable Care Act (AKA ObamaCare) today or it stays in place. With most Americans not supporting the GOP replacement plan, and a slight majority actually favoring ObamaCare, a Republican Congressional failure would actually be a favorable outcome for President Trump. Meanwhile, most of the backlash will be directed at Congress rather than the White House
What Republicans may not yet realize, but what Trump has probably has figured out, is that repealing ObamaCare will be bad for his presidency, and likely even the Republican Party. The most recent poll numbers suggest that only 17% of Americans support the Republican plan, while 56% disapprove, and the rest were undecided or didn’t have enough information.
Efforts to repeal ObamaCare have revealed the rifts within the Republican Party. Hardlined conservatives have demanded numerous major concessions in exchange for their support. These concessions will result in millions of people losing health insurance. These concessions have also driven away moderate Republicans who are rightly worried about their constituents losing access to health care.
Compared to numbers gathered earlier in March, it appears that an increasing number of Americans are losing the stomach for an ObamaCare repeal. Earlier this month, a Hart Research poll found that 32% of Americans wanted to repeal ObamaCare, while a full 68% wanted it to be improved. Even among Trump voters “improve” opinions topped 54%. It’s impossible to compare polls directly but the numbers do suggest that American’s views have evolved over the past few weeks, with support for repeal dropping.
Ultimately, the repeal failure fits with Trump’s business style. Throughout his career Trump relied on contractors, in this case GOP members of Congress, to perform work. Trump has always been known for being tough on these contractors, and that appears to be the case in the currently unfolding scenario. Further, Trump has made it clear that when it comes to deals he is pragmatic and flexible. Congressional failures likely means that Trump will be shifting gears, with blame for the current failure falling on Congress rather than Trump.
Could a Trump Vs. Koch Family Battle Unfold?
Interestingly, a Trump nemesis is leading the charge to repeal the Affordable Care Act: the Koch family. The Koch Brothers offered little support to Donald Trump during his campaign, funded his GOP opponents at times, and publicly opposed him. Now, they are using much of their considerable political and financial might to force through an Affordable Care Act repeal.
If they had succeeded, Trump would have likely shouldered the backlash, while they’ll achieve their own ends and will be able to slip quietly back into the shadows. That won’t be happening, not this time around, and out of the two, Trump will be coming out the winner. The Koch’s are once again being reminded of the limits of their power and money, while Trump won’t have to fret over angry voters losing health care.
To be clear, I am not a huge fan of the Trump administration, but unlike so many others, I’m not going to make the mistake of underestimating him. Most Americans don’t want Obamacare repealed, not right now, not in this fashion. President Trump will dodge a bullet with Republican efforts falling apart, and Republicans in Congress will be forced to shoulder most of the blame.
Brian Brinker is an OpsLens Contributor and political consultant. Brinker has an M.A in Global Affairs from American University.
