“It’s hard to believe that the group responsible for the largest single act of terror on U.S. soil has lost its starring role on the global stage. But make no mistake, that doesn’t mean they’ve forgotten about us.”
With ISIS now forced to regroup after defeat in its most sought after strongholds in Mosul and Raqqa, many questions surround its future. But the group aspiring to establish a caliphate in the Middle East isn’t the only one plotting its next move. Lost in the focus on the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria has been the activities of its essential forefather — al-Qa’ida.
It’s hard to believe that the group responsible for the largest single act of terror on U.S. soil has lost its starring role on the global stage. But make no mistake, that doesn’t mean they’ve forgotten about us. And now, with their closest competition for terror supremacy having to take a breather to reformulate, Bid Laden’s organization is primed to re-emerge.
Though not competitors over the ultimate ideology, they both want the utter annihilation of anything Western in values and culture. But when it comes to growing their footprint to achieve this mission, the two groups have been competing for recruits and news coverage since Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi separated from al-Qa’ida’s Iraq-based affiliate.
In addition, its overall leader, officially Ayman al-Zawahiri, has the charisma of a wet mop.
The splinter into the Islamic State (also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) brought with it a battle for front line soldiers. The division between the two groups had been stewing for several years — the likes of al-Baghdadi were unhappy with the decision making that took place by some of al-Qa’ida’s leaders holed up far beyond the Iraq and Syria theaters. Holed up as a result of aggressive and effective U.S. military operations. These operations have been similar in nature to the ones that have now pushed ISIS out of its intended strongholds. The former leading group al-Qa’ida has endured a period of regrouping and slowdown in their pace of operations.
Over the last few years, al-Qa’ida has been focused on keeping its core alive and out of the crosshairs of unmanned aircraft. In addition, its overall leader, officially Ayman al-Zawahiri, has the charisma of a wet mop. The lack of inspiring leadership has seen the group’s ability to recruit dwindle. But now a confluence of events, both internal to the group and externally tied to ISIS, have it poised to reclaim its prominence on a global stage.
Over the last few years, al-Qa’ida has been focused on keeping its core alive and out of the crosshairs of unmanned aircraft.
Though ISIS will likely seek to execute or inspire high profile attacks, they will likely also experience a lull in conducting coordinated operations. As they do so, al-Qa’ida will seek to leverage the downtime. In addition, there has been an emergence in the public sphere of Osama’s heir to the al-Qa’ida legacy, Hamza Bin Laden. Though he lacks the same operational experience of many of those with whom he’ll be charged to lead, Hamza has both the name recognition and the charisma that al-Zawahiri is lacking.
With Mosul and Raqqa, ISIS had the chance to show its ability to maintain a stronghold in large and symbolic regions of the Middle East. Their failure to do so will raise doubts in the minds of recruits — ones who want to wage jihad knowing their sacrifice will not be for nothing. And though ISIS has owned the headlines with its attacks over the last few years, it has still yet to inflict a single moment of terror comparable to September 11th, 2001.
For an aspiring jihadist, whose loyalty is up for grabs, that point is not lost. The group that still owns the largest single day body count in this war on terror will find itself poised to capitalize.
