BREAKING: The Israeli strike on Syria tonight killed at least twelve Iranian military personnel, according to reports from Arab media outlets. Media reported that Israel fired missiles at an Iranian military base near Al-Kiswah, a town in the southern suburbs of Damascus. A Western security source told the BBC three weeks ago that the base was built by Iran and that it was intended to become a permanent Iranian presence. (See aerial photos of the base here.)
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu warned Syria repeatedly over the past month that Israel will not tolerate a permanent Iranian military presence in Syria. He warned also that Israel would not permit Iranian troops or equipment too close to the Israeli-Syrian border. Al-Kiswah is about 30 miles from the border.
Private Warning from Netanyahu
According to Israel TV, Netanyahu sent a private message to Syrian President Bashar Al Assad via a third party last month. In the message, he specified that Israel would intervene in the Syrian civil war if Assad invited any kind of Iranian military presence into Syria. In addition to the base south of Damascus, the TV report noted, Iran wants to build “a naval base, possibly for submarines, an air base and arms factories for precision weapons.”
Other Israeli officials had echoed Netanyahu’s warning. Israeli newspaper Haaretz reports, “Even Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, who is usually very cautions, said recently in an interview to the online Saudi newspaper Elaph that Israel demands Iran and its Shi’ite militias pull back in Syria at least to the east of the Damascus-Sweida highway, which lies 37 miles from the border with Israel in the Golan Heights. ‘We won’t allow any Iranian presence. We’ve warned them not to build plants or military bases [there],’ Eisenkot added.”
“Fasten seat belts.”
Ambassador Martin Indyk, former U.S. Ambassador to Israel and former Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs, issued a stark warning. Indyk tweeted, “Fasten seat belts. First time I can recall overt Israeli strike on Iranian base that kills Iranians. Tehran will likely respond in its own way (i.e. with terror attack).”
Ambassador Alberto Fernandez, a retired career Foreign Service Officer and State Department Arabist, replied via tweet. He said “Problem with this comment is that #Iran’s actions here south of Damascus were already a provocative escalation.” Fernandez served as the State Department’s Coordinator for Strategic Counterterrorism Communications, and as director of the office of press and public diplomacy in the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs.
Will Iran Retaliate by Terrorist Strike?
If Ambassador Indyk is correct in his prediction, that Iran will retaliate against Israel by a terrorist strike, this could be the beginning of a tit for tat that will lead to a hot war. The entire region is on edge. Saudi Arabia is newly assertive under the leadership of King Salman and his son, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). The Saudis make no effort to hide their alliance with Israel, which they formed to counter Iranian influence in the region.
… this could be the beginning of a tit for tat that will lead to a hot war.
The Saudi policy is aimed at breaking up the Shi’a corridor stretching across the Levant, the Fertile Crescent. With the Shi’a-led government in Iraq, Iran has free access to most of southern and middle Iraqi territory. That gives Iran nearly complete control over northern Arabia, when combined with the Hezbollah stranglehold on Lebanon and Syria’s client status vis-a-vis Iran.
When Iran tried to add Yemen to the countries under its hegemony, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) allies felt encircled. They acted forcefully, fueling a proxy war in Yemen between the Iran-supported Houthi rebels and the elected government. They now seem to have decided to cut off Iranian influence at every possible location, in cooperation with Israel and Egypt.
Israeli Strike on Syria May Stop Iran
Today’s strike by Israel may be the first blow in that expansion of the struggle. It also showcases Netanyahu’s exquisite sense of timing. The Times of Israel reported that Netanyahu warned in a video clip published Saturday night that Israel would not tolerate an Iranian military presence in Syria. The full video was recorded earlier this week, to be shown tomorrow at the Brookings Institution’s annual Saban Forum in Washington. But the Prime Minister shared a short clip tonight.
“Let me reiterate Israel’s policy: We will not allow a regime hell-bent on the annihilation of the Jewish state to acquire nuclear weapons. We will not allow that regime to entrench itself militarily in Syria, as it seeks to do, for the express purpose of eradicating our state.”
It should be an interesting Forum tomorrow at Brookings.
