The iPhone isn’t the only thing expected to get an upgrade next year. In the Department of the Navy’s Long-Range Plan for Construction of Naval Vessels for Fiscal Year (FY) 2019, the Navy identified two new classes of submarine that are expected to join the fleet. While the iPhone gets a much-anticipated upgrade all the time, research and development of new classes of ships and submarines is a much bigger deal.
Two new classes of submarine were identified—the Large Payload Submarine cruise-missile submarine and the SSN(X) attack submarine.
The Large Payload Submarines are “intended to replace the capability provided by the SSGNs that will be retired in the mid- to late-2020s.” The new technology would allow the sub to operate as a guided-missile submarine or an attack submarine, depending on its payload. It is expected to enter the fleet in the late 2030s with additional submarines ordered every 3 years.
About the Large Payload Submarines, scant specific information was provided in the report or to lawmakers.
The plan includes the purchase of 60 additional attack submarines, 30 additional Virginia-class and 30 of a “new, advanced design.” It will still take almost 30 years for the Navy to reach its intended inventory of attack submarines. To accelerate growth, the Navy plans to extend the service life of currently commissioned attack submarines.
The Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine will replace the Ohio-class submarines currently in the fleet. It is scheduled to enter the fleet in the late 2020s.
The report details how the Navy plans to reach President Trump’s promised 355-ship Navy by 2050, with additional measures to bring that timeline to the 2030s.
Big Developments Means Big Bills
The long-range report was first published in February, but received recent attention from the media following an October analysis published by the Congressional Budget Office.
Congress’ report focused on the costs of such a big endeavor. According to their analysis, “new-ship construction would cost an average of $19.7 billion per year over the near term,” with an additional $460 million needed for cost overruns for ships currently under construction. Annual estimates would increase over time, rising to an average of $21.1 billion per year in the long-term. This is more than double the current budget allocations of $13.6 billion average annually.
The analysis estimates that almost half of that budget would go to the submarine force.
The analysis by the Congressional Budget Office called the costs of the Columbia-class subs “one of the most significant uncertainties in the Navy’s and CBO’s analyses of future shipbuilding costs.” The purchase process would begin in 2017, with the first purchase being made in 2021.
Current cost estimates average around $7.1 billion for each submarine, with development costs of $13 billion. As hefty as that price tag sounds, it is still cheaper than the Virginia-class that it will replace. This is mostly due to the fact that the larger and less dense Columbia-class will be “easier to build and thus less expensive per thousand tons.” The Navy did caveat those estimates by saying that “there is a greater than 50 percent probability that the cost of the first Columbia and subsequent ships of the class would exceed its estimates.”
An Analysis of the Navy's Fiscal Year 2019 Shipbuilding Planhttps://t.co/NKrxvj2P7w
— U.S. CBO (@USCBO) October 18, 2018
Media Attention
Foreign policy-focused magazine The National Interest first published a story about the plan, outlining what it would entail.
The two new classes of submarine would “help to maintain the Navy’s advantage in submarine-on-submarine warfare while also filling a looming shortfall in the sailing branch’s capacity for sea-to-land missile strikes.”
The Navy's New Submarine Plan Is In. Take a Look. https://t.co/ZiGpvkJdEK
— National Interest (@TheNatlInterest) October 25, 2018
“Reducing missile armament in favor of torpedoes in the SSN(X) design could, absent other force-structure changes, exacerbate the loss of around 600 missile tubes,” the article said of the future force composition. They went on to note that the varied capabilities of the unspecified Large Payload Submarine could remedy the shortfall.
The story was republished on the digital media platform War is Boring this month.
