Last week, China added missile systems in the contested Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. The YJ-12B anti-ship cruise missiles would provide China the ability to engage surface vessels within 295 nautical miles of the reefs; and the HQ-9B surface-to-air missiles are expected to have a range of 160 nautical miles. This is the first time China has added these systems in that area. It bolsters their claim to the disputed islands and, most importantly, it stokes long-standing tensions in the region while also calling into question the American response.
China has long argued with other nations such as Vietnam and the Philippines that the islands in the South China Sea belong to them. Each country has asserted their claims in various ways and even spilled blood over the matter, though China has done the most to artificially build-up islands, install airfields and docks, and then place ostensibly defensive weapons in the area. The problem comes in that these unilateral actions often defy international law and create an arms race in the region. As the largest power with the single largest military, this would favor China and encourage them to use force to settle problems.
On top of that, the supposedly defensive weapon systems represent a dangerous trend. China anti-access area denial strategy (A2AD) is designed to present a barrage of missiles, drones, sensors, and other defensive weapons that would deny access to American forces. This would give them the critical window they need to seize key territory ranging from disputed islands with Japan, Taiwan, or islands in South China Sea. Once seized, China would present the world and America with a fait accompli and essentially win the war before the US could effectively engage.
Despite the fear-mongering that often accompanies this narrative, a sober assessment of US counter-policy and countermeasures suggests little need for overreactions. Freedom of Navigation patrols by US forces sail within what the Chinese consider the sovereign territory of the artificially built-up and seized islands. This contains some danger of sparking a war with China, and certainly earns the condemnation of Chinese officials. But these patrols uphold international law, and prevent a violent free-for-all in the region where disputes are settled by force and would naturally favor China.
Moreover, Chinese missiles are simply the newest version of technology that has been around since World War II. In the sixty years since then, America has built up multi-layered defenses to counter missiles and every generation of new and faster hypersonic missiles. The sensors on spy planes as well as combat air craft can detect missiles from hundreds of miles away. These are backed up by those on Aegis cruisers which accompany American carriers.
The sensors on the F-35 are designed to detect missiles from “beyond the horizon,” and have been networked with less advanced fighters that can launch even more missiles. The radar on the Arleigh Burke class Aegis cruisers are being enhanced as well. This is before we consider the close-in weapon systems, which are being upgraded to possibly include rail guns, possible improvements such as artillery repurposed into anti-missile batteries, and land-based sensors and missiles batteries such as Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD). In short, the US has upgraded their multilayered defenses to handle new and faster missiles.
While the missiles that China placed on these islands represents a significant concern and an additional aggressive move in the area, the US countermeasures are more than capable of meeting this threat. This is a new development that doesn’t do much to change the strategic equation in the region, but serves as a useful reminder that the US must continue to upgrade its weapon systems, be aware, and be prepared for conflict in the South China Sea.
