“It appears North Korea currently has a capable nuclear ICBM and a weapon that can be mounted and delivered to the US mainland.”
The experts all said it would not happen anytime soon, that North Korea was not capable of developing a missile that could reach the US mainland. They said it would take years for the hermit state to develop that capability. But the experts were wrong. North Korea not only developed a capable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), but they have already tested it — repeatedly.
First, we saw multiple missile launches from North Korea of short ranged missiles. Then, larger and more powerful missiles were tested. On August 28, North Korea also tested its mid-range Hwasong-12 missile which traveled about 2,700 km over Japan and has a range potential of 4,000 km. That is within range of a US territory in the Pacific Ocean, Guam, which is a target Kim Jong Un has threatened .
We have also seen the deployment and testing of a long-range ICBM that could impact much of the US mainland. That was supposed to be a tipping point. President Trump famously said it would not happen, but he was wrong, and it has. In June, North Korea launched an ICBM that had a range of at least 10,000 km. That would put cities all the way to Washington D.C in range of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities.
This theoretical range was estimated based on the Hwasong-14 performance in a test-launch on July 28, when it flew for about 45 minutes before landing in the Sea of Japan.
The experts also have been quick to point out that the North, although in possession of some rudimentary nuclear devices, had no means to deliver the weapons. They also point to the belief that the nuclear weapons the North had developed were small based on tests of nuclear devices the North conducted in the past.
That all changed Sunday morning when North Korea detonated what was purported to be a hydrogen bomb. Based on the tremors that followed the test, NORSAR estimated it had an explosive yield of 120 kilotons. Hiroshima’s had 15 kilotons.
The next development was the miniaturization of the warhead. The US and many world scientists and officials have doubted that the North Koreans could build a launch capable warhead anytime soon. The steps to miniaturize the warhead so it could be mounted on an ICBM was thought to be years away. That estimate has also changed. It appears North Korea currently has a capable nuclear ICBM and a weapon that can be mounted and delivered to the US mainland.
The UN has increased pressure on North Korea through more stringent sanctions, but they have appeared not to have any effect on slowing the headlong run into the nuclear arena. The US, South Korea, Japan, and most of the rest of the world have condemned the actions taken by North Korea and labeled them reckless, aggressive, and provocative.
Decades of negotiations have brought us to a position that is worse and more dangerous than ever before.
As tensions mount to the boiling point, the edge of the cliff seems to be getting closer and closer. The US and the world will soon have to decide if a nuclear North Korea can be tolerated. With the North constantly pushing the boundaries of brinkmanship, one could see some aggressive action being more than contemplated. North Korea’s continued threatening of the US and its allies has to stop. In the past, those threats were taken with a grain of salt due to the lack of a deliverable weapon. Now, with these new developments, the threats and saber rattling from North Korea have to be taken extremely seriously.
The thing we feared most has happened. We are now facing a nuclear capable North Korea. At what point does this end? What path does the world take? Decades of negotiations have brought us to a position that is worse and more dangerous than ever before.
Unfortunately, we are quickly approaching the tipping point. We may be approaching the point where we have to take significant action to mediate the danger a nuclear North Korea poses, and if we don’t act soon, it may be North Korea that makes that decision for us with the simple push of a button.
