Theoretically, 2018 should be the year of the Democrat and for a long time now polls have been pointing to just that. However, the most recent Washington Post-ABC News poll has shown that the advantage Democrats have is shrinking. Why? That’s up for speculation, but so far the Democratic Party has seemed content to push onward with the same tired messages and out-of-touch machine politics that already cost it the 2016 Presidential elections.
Thus, while Democrats may have headed into 2018 in poll position to lock up huge gains, a resounding victory is far from assured. In January, the Washington Post poll found that Democrats had a 12 percent advantage among registered voters. As of April that had shrunk to just 4 percent, which importantly is within the 4-point margin of error. In other words, Democrats don’t currently enjoy a statistically firm lead.
Part of the decline for Democrats may have been tied to an uptick in President Trump’s approval rating. In January, just 36 percent of respondents to a Washington Post poll approved of the job Trump was doing. As of April, this had risen to 40 percent. While still historically low, it was an improvement (although the margin of error makes this improvement questionable). 56 percent of respondents still disapproved of Trump.
However, if Democrat leaders are looking for someone to blame, their best bet is to look in the mirror. Trump remains a widely controversial president and midterm elections typically go to the party that doesn’t control the White House. Yet the Democratic Party has been too busy shooting itself in the foot to take full advantage of the situation.
One of the reasons Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 was because she failed to drive people to the polls. Many Americans regarded her as a symbol of the corrupt, broken politics in Washington D.C. that so many of us have come to loathe. One might think that her loss would have been a wake-up call, but few of the Democratic leadership listened.
In the days following Trump’s victory, Nancy Pelosi quickly shot down calls to step aside. She also said that people didn’t “want a new direction,” a shockingly tone-deaf comment for a political party that had just let the presidency slip from its fingers.
Change did appear to be forthcoming, however. Democratic House member Keith Ellison had announced his plan to run for the DNC Chair position and for several weeks seemed like a lock. Then DNC insiders convinced Obama’s former labor secretary, Thomas Perez, to run for the position. Perez prevailed, enraging progressives. Since then, the DNC has largely carried on the same as it always has. Perez has even been accused of purging anti-establishment members of the DNC.
Further, Democrats lack a unified, forceful message. They should take a page from the GOP playbook. Republicans have proven time and time again that they can push and then stick to a message that will get their base excited. Democrats tried to do the same with their “Better Deal” platform that harkened to FDR’s new deal. Only, the platform read like another rehash of the Democratic Party’s tired talking points. The policy briefly promised the world while offering little in the way of details about how those promises would be delivered.
Republicans still have the most to lose. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has previously reported that of the 56 likely to be competitive House seats, 51 of them are GOP-controlled while just five are held by Democrats. Thus, the GOP stands to lose up to 51 seats in the House. Of course, this script could flip if Democrats continue to lose ground.
