Throughout his presidency, I have frequently been critical of President Trump. I wonder about his business dealings and whether they are creating serious conflicts of interest. I feel his recent actions regarding tariffs could upset a strong but fragile global economy. Yadda, yadda, yadda. I’ve also wondered if Trump was right to take a tough approach to North Korea, and I’m not the only one. President Trump has frequently been criticized for his saber rattling regarding North Korea. At the same time, however, the President has also urged the rogue nation to sit down and negotiate. If recent events are an indicator, the President’s hardline approach may be paying dividends.
No, Kim Jong Un didn’t sit down with President Trump and cave to his demands. Even better, Kim met with high-level leaders from South Korea, inviting South Korean diplomats to Pyongyang for talks. This event is believed to be the first time that Kim Jong Un has met with high-level South Korean diplomats since assuming power in 2011.
The meeting followed relatively warm North-South Korean relations at the recent Winter Olympics, where athletes from both countries participated in shows of unity. Looking forward, the two Koreas have also announced plans to hold a summit at the border village of Panmunjom in the coming weeks.
More importantly, North Korea is apparently willing to come back to the table to discuss nuclear disarmament.
Apparently, Kim said that North Korea was willing to disarm if military threats to its regime are contained and if the future of the regime is also assured, at least as far as outside powers are concerned. Should negotiations begin, North Korea has stated that it is willing to suspend future nuclear and long-range missile tests.
The United States has been down this road before, and North Korea has broken many agreements. It’s possible that North Korea will backslide once again, assuming that a deal can even be met. However, it’s also fair to wonder if Trump’s tougher stance and admittedly less predictable behavior will encourage North Korea to tow the line.
The recent quick thaw of tensions on the Korean peninsula has taken some by surprise. However, facing crippling sanctions and the ever-tightening noose of the United Nations, North Korea may be growing more desperate. Indeed, the vague threat of a United States/South Korean military attack may no longer be the most immediate threat.
There is the possibility of an uprising from inside North Korea for one. Obtaining information on what is happening in North Korea is infamously difficult. However, it is known that North Koreans are increasingly growing their connection to the outside world. Smuggled flash drives, for example, are allowing North Koreans to watch Western movies and to obtain other outside information. Surely, North Korea still remains one of the most disconnected countries in the world, but in the information age, knowledge will find a way.
(Credit: NK News)
It’s also fair to wonder how long North Korea’s ruling elite will continue to back Kim Jong Un. Many believe that Kim’s “throne” is not as untouchable as it seems. North Korea’s elites have acquired a taste for Western amenities, and downtown Pyongyang is increasingly home to chic, modern shops and restaurants.
However, what might be an even bigger force for change are the recent events across the border. No, not the southern one, but instead to the north. Chinese President Xi Jinping is tightening his grip on the Chinese Communist Party, and with term limits out of the way, he might be there to stay.
President Xi has not been on as warm of terms with North Korea as past Chinese leaders. Some argue that former CCP leader Jiang Zemin actually holds more sway over North Korea. However, with Xi consolidating power, Kim may see the writing on the wall: In the not so distant future, China may not be as protective of North Korea as it has been in the past.
Regardless of the causes, North Korea’s seeming flash thaw is something the world should watch with a cautious, even if skeptical optimism.
