President Trump and Kim Jong Un are preparing for the historic U.S.-North Korea summit meeting to be held in Singapore on June 12th. Trump and his team will watch for indicators of Kim’s candor and credibility, such as North Korean use of propaganda, what he means by promising ‘denuclearization,’ and what he says to his own population. They also should watch for an attempt by Vladimir Putin to disrupt the summit.
Putin Humiliated
The Russian media are reliable indicators of Putin’s mood, given his near-absolute control over most of the outlets. Their anger at Trump’s recent foreign policy moves has been rising. Putin is livid at being relegated to a second-rate performer on the world stage, and is likely to act as a spoiler at every opportunity.
Putin is livid at being relegated to a second-rate performer on the world stage, and is likely to act as a spoiler at every opportunity.
Trump has humiliated him in Syria, made him irrelevant in Korea, and pulled out of the Iran deal. Earlier this year a group of feared Russian mercenaries, the Wagner Group, had established a base of operations in Syria. These were rumored to be the same units that invaded the Crimea: Russian Special Forces in unmarked uniforms claiming no affiliation with any national military, the so-called ‘little green men.’
In February, an American military attack destroyed the Wagner forces in a single battle. Because they claimed no national allegiance, destroying them did not provoke an international incident. They were present in violation of the accepted rules of war, and their destruction provoked no Russian response. Putin’s hands were tied, because he had never acknowledged their presence.
Irrelevance in Korea
North Korea has long been the puppet of China, but Russia also has tremendous influence there. Putin has cultivated Kim Jong Un by supplying his regime with the RD-251 rocket engines that enabled North Korean missiles to fly straight over long distances. Kim expected that developing nuclear warheads and ICBM’s would make him a credible world leader.
With one tweet, Trump undercut Putin’s Korean initiative.
President Trump refused to admit Kim to that club on the basis of his nuclear missile threat. He pointed out to the world that Kim’s are puny, unreliable and insufficient. “I have a bigger button – and mine works!”
Trump forced China and Russia to bring Kim to face the hard truth – they would not go to war with the United States if North Korea started it. Kim’s few nukes do him no good if he tries to use them without superpower backup. What good were Putin’s rockets, if Kim cannot use the missiles to threaten anyone credibly? With one tweet, Trump undercut Putin’s Korean initiative.
Humiliation in Iran
As a signatory to the JCPOA, Putin appeared as an equal on the world stage with the transatlantic powers. But the American withdrawal exposes the deal as hollow and irrelevant, leaving Putin a player on an empty stage. Trump knows that the threat of losing access to America’s commerce and financial system eventually will bring European support for renewed sanctions against the Islamic Republic.
The continued thirst of the Iranian government for war and destruction is a daily reminder of what the mullahs’ regime will do with any money they receive. Increased American production and export of oil and gas will make it easier for consumer nations to turn away from Iranian oil (and Russian gas). Putin’s support of Iranian adventurism will leave him the last man standing alongside the murderous regime. Furthermore, if the Iranian people continue to demonstrate their longing for freedom, the Russian people too may become restive once again.
Putin’s Revenge
Putin won’t take that lying down, and is sure to try all his tricks to throw a wrench into the Korea talks, or into domestic American politics, or both. He approaches world politics from the perspective of his judo training: he does not have to be equal in size or strength to win a fight. He will try to win by leveraging his opponent’s own size and strength against him.
Expect the Russians to release some information that will embarrass either side, or both sides. Perhaps they will ‘find’ evidence of collusion between Trump and Russia. Perhaps they will threaten a cutoff of Russian supplies to North Korea if Kim makes peace, or conversely, they may promise increased support or protection to Kim if he walks away from a deal. But be assured, Putin has been humiliated. He won’t forget it, and he won’t let it pass.
