“…it’s clear that Russia has been able to play a weak hand very well and step into vacuums everywhere where the US has retreated.”
Saudi Arabia and Russia have recently turned the page on decades of tension and rivalry, signaling a new era of cooperation. In the first ever visit by a Saudi monarch to Russia, King Salman bin Abdulaziz met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on October 5.
The Saudi King and Vladimir Putin struck a slew of deals as part of this groundbreaking first visit by the Saudi monarch. Putin hailed his visit as a “landmark event” that will give a “strong impulse” to bilateral ties.
In what must seem like a case of ‘strange bedfellows’ – Saudi Arabia and Russia announced significant investment agreements and joint ventures to further cement relations, which have often been tense since the Cold War times when the kingdom supported Afghan rebels fighting the Soviet invasion in the 1980s.
Marking a thaw in relations between the countries, more than 15 cooperation agreements worth billions of dollars were signed
Marking a thaw in relations between the countries, more than 15 cooperation agreements worth billions of dollars were signed, with areas of proposed cooperation ranging from oil, to the military, to space exploration, leading the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, to claim the visit marked the moment when Saudi-Russian relations “reached a new qualitative level.”
As a result of deals signed during the meeting, the Saudis will pump billions of dollars of investment into Russia, and Russia will send military hardware, including the S-400 anti-aircraft missile system, to Saudi Arabia. Along with the S-400 anti-aircraft missiles, Saudi Arabia is also set to buy Kornet anti-tank guided missile systems and multiple rocket launchers under the deal.
While the US has remained Saudi Arabia’s top weapons supplier and its most critical Western ally, the deal with the Russians highlights Riyadh’s intention to expand ties with Russia. This is a significant development for a country that usually gets its weaponry from the United States.
Saudi Arabia is still a world leader in oil production, but its oil no longer gives it the leverage over the United States that it once did. The shale revolution in the US has enabled the US to become a major producer – and exporter – of crude. Higher US production, moreover, has driven prices so low that the Saudis can no longer generate enough profits from the sale of oil to balance their budget.
Observers say that Riyadh’s decision to boost ties with Moscow reflects the expanded clout Russia has won in the Middle East with its military blitz in Syria. The Saudi monarch noted that the two nations agree on many international and regional issues and intend to continue their efforts to shore up global oil prices. The kingdom, much like Russia, has been hit by the fall in oil prices since mid-2014.
Strained Relations
Saudi-US ties grew strained under the Obama administration over its backing of a nuclear agreement with Iran and its cautious stance on the Syrian conflict. The Saudis have traditionally seen the US as its chief – if not exclusive – foreign policy partner, but changes inside the Saudi regime, as well as Saudi fears about US reliability, have left the kingdom looking to diversify into a broader set of alliances.
Recognizing that the Americans were drifting away, the Saudis began to craft a new national security doctrine. Since 2011, they have taken the lead in addressing several regional security issues rather than waiting for the United States to do it for them. Reaching out to Russia is another part of this new security doctrine.
King Salman’s visit comes after decades of tensions, most recently over the war in Syria, where Saudi Arabia had backed the Sunni rebels fighting to oust President Bashar al-Assad, while its arch-rival, Shiite powerhouse Iran, had teamed with Russia to shore up his rule.
Some Gulf leaders have been going with greater regularity to Moscow, and I think for a simple reason: as the US has taken a step back in some ways, Russia has made itself much more of a factor in critical parts of the Middle East, particularly in Syria. Salman’s trip to Moscow, which follows other visits by Gulf royals, is the clearest sign yet that Russia’s high-risk gamble in Syria has paid off.
Recognizing that the Americans were drifting away, the Saudis began to craft a new national security doctrine
King Salman called for any peace settlement in Syria to ensure that the country remained integrated, but he did not repeat the longstanding, and now shelved, Saudi call for the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, to stand aside. Faced with Assad’s Russian-backed military advance in the south and west of Syria, the Saudis have been forced to scale back their political demands that Assad leave.
Anna Borshchevskaya, a fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says that even though Moscow cannot replace Washington, “it’s clear that Russia has been able to play a weak hand very well and step into vacuums everywhere where the US has retreated.”
Washington and Riyadh continue to do business with one another and relations have improved under the Trump administration. President Trump was just in Saudi Arabia in May signing an arms deal. But the US no longer depends on Saudi oil, and it doesn’t feel that it can count on the kingdom in its fight against jihadists, whose ideology overlaps with that of the kingdom.
Russia has pulled out all the diplomatic stops to welcome the Saudi king. The historic four-day visit heralds a shift in global power structures. Russia and Saudi Arabia are beginning to value relations with each other more.
The Russian-Saudi rapprochement and the relative normalization of Russian-Saudi relations that we are witnessing today is the result of extreme pragmatism and willingness to repress ideological differences on both sides.
