“Ultimately, Baghdad needs Kurdistan more than the other way around. And the Kurds have earned their right to make this vote whether anyone, even the US, likes it or not.”
If the United States has learned one thing about engagements in the Middle East, namely in Iraq, it’s that we must be prepared for the dominos that will fall in the aftermath of successes. The region is a tinder box always on the cusp of a new war. Allies in one battle can easily become enemies in the next.
The latest threat in that regard comes as the Kurdistan region of Iraq moves down the path toward independence. The ramifications of which could mean the start of a war that has been a long time coming. One led by the likes of Iran and that would threaten to eliminate gains that Western allies have achieved in recent years.
As of this writing the votes are still being tallied, but the outcome is expected to be overwhelmingly if not practically unanimous in support of independence. The decision is garnering strong views from all with a vested interest in the region and the world. The United Nations anticipates the move will lead to further destabilization for Iraq, and ultimately the Middle East. They’re likely not wrong on this one as Turkey and Iran, neighbors to the Kurdistan region of Iraq with large numbers of Kurds comprising their populace, have voiced their rejection.
The Iraqi government has committed less and less resources and support to the region, while…al-Abidi’s administration has had no problem utilizing Kurdistan’s assets, specifically militarily
For now, the promulgation has led to a cut off of supply lines to Kurdistan from Turkey. Both Turkey and Iran fear that success in Iraq could spark uprisings and similar movements in their own countries. The move also throws a wrench into Iran’s plans to grow its footprint throughout the region via Iraq. Meaning further escalation is plausible with military action bringing with it another sectarian war on the horizon.
The Kurds for their part have voiced that the move is a salvo against the capital in Baghdad where the Iraqi government has committed less and less resources and support to the region, while at the same time Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abidi’s administration has had no problem utilizing Kurdistan’s assets, specifically militarily. Without the Kurds fighting in lockstep with the Iraqis, defeat of ISIS in Mosul would not have been achieved. Ultimately, Baghdad needs Kurdistan more than the other way around. And the Kurds have earned their right to make this vote whether anyone, even the US, likes it or not.
Independence has long been a desire and intended goal for Kurdistan, and the moment has never appeared riper than now. As the administration in Baghdad spirals into more political chaos, and Syria presents a distraction militarily now that ISIS is losing territory, Kurdistan has found their chance. While the United States and other Western allies throughout the world should uphold and respect the move, Kurdistan independence should come with a healthy dose of precaution.
The defeat of ISIS in Mosul could have brought with it the chance at reparations between the multitude of Islamic subgroups that comprise the area, as the one thing most seemingly agreed upon was that the terrorist group had to go. Instead, however, no bridge building appears to be in the plans. Support of a people’s independence, particularly a group that has given more than it has taken from the ruling government, should on the surface be cut and dry. However, although there is evidence to suggest the Kurds have fought for this right so as to maintain a peaceful and prosperous way of living, the move can likely be a step back from efforts toward integration.
For the United States it is a move that should not be surprising and one that warrants both scrutiny and support. A key ally in the war on terror in Iraq could also with this move fracture the delicate relations that have been built with the Iraqi government to date. As the game of chess in the region continues all eyes will be on the small territory that comprises part of Northern Iraq to determine who will be enemies next and who has the most at stake.
