As of the evening of the 17th, this thing is moving fast. Last week we predicted with good accuracy the Dem gameplan up to now. The whole operation is designed to give cover to red state Dems to vote no and Vichy Republicans who want to do the same. As of this moment, they may be succeeding. Where does the whole thing go from here?
No deal: The smartest move. Let her talk on a conference call soon to the entire committee. Dems will boycott. Hold the line. Vote as scheduled on Thursday. 11-10 for him. The Senate votes narrowly to confirm, as it would have anyway. GOP wins because it didn’t take the obvious bait. By the time you read this I bet the GOP has already folded on this and taken the hearings bait. Ah, the Republicans, traditionally snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Postponement and vote: The GOP gives a little but limits the damage, as Ford does not get a nationwide televised platform. Comes out of committee 10-10. Vote Friday or Monday. Kavanaugh wins in the end, but barely. Might have to call in Pence. Five minutes after I submitted this for editing, it was no longer in play.
It’s a trap: GOP has damning material on Ford and wants to hit her with it in front of America. So, they give her time in front of the committee, with Kavanaugh going after her to rebut, and turn the tables. Possible avenues of attack are his mom being the judge on her parent’s foreclosure and her brother’s relationship with GPS Fusion. Plus any other fun stuff the GOP is playing possum with. The White House is being uncharacteristically nice to Ford, perhaps because they want to sucker the Dems in even more. Probability of this scenario? 60-40 against.
It’s a five-dimensional trap: The Kavanaugh nomination itself is only a ploy to get red state Dems to vote no. The White House already knew about Ford. Kavanaugh is not confirmed. But these Dems (Tester, McCaskill, Manchin, Jones, Heitkamp) who voted no possibly lose in November, as their moderate creds are killed by Trump voters in their respective states. Then with the increased Senate majority we get on the court whoever we want on it. It was Trump’s plan all along. That is assuming that the GOP can take the hit and still gain in the Senate. A chancy proposition at best and I really should stop drinking in the middle of the day.
No postponement, televised hearings, vote as scheduled: She is beamed coast to coast. She scores, he holds his own. White House applies pressure. GOP Senate committee members bring other women on television to testify to his good character. Vote Thursday, 10-10. No prediction. Too close to call. Just heard, vote on the 24th. Aaaannd, that’s how fast this is playing out.
Postponement, televised hearings, vote in a week: She comes on television and emotes. The whole pop culture machine swings into action. Marches in DC and all over the nation next week. 3-4 GOP Senators get spooked. Maybe one Dem votes to confirm. Kavanaugh loses 51-49. Dems ride wave, combined with other surprises set for October, to winning the House by two dozen votes to spare. GOP picks up one in the Senate. Trump high water mark has crested for now. This is the current reality. The GOP has taken the poisoned bait.
As I’ve gone over these scenarios with various associates, many of them of the GOP persuasion have told me there is no way he will not get confirmed. And I myself thought that until not long ago, even after I knew something dirty was afoot. But I counted on the GOP members of the Judiciary Committee to stand their ground. Silly me. I thought for once they would stop acting on the premise that any conservative is presumed guilty until they are found guilty. I was wrong.
Ah, the Stupid Party. They still care what The New York Times and The Washington Post thinks.
And my conservative pals mentioned above are wrong when they think the very obvious absurdity of the charge renders it a non-starter. They still seem to believe that logic, honesty, and empirical evidence count for anything when you’re in a political battle with authoritarian socialists. Thus some on the right must stop channeling Neville Chamberlain in believing that if only the wise American people knew what a sham these charges are they would rise up and demand Kavanaugh be confirmed by acclamation. The right must expunge the notion that gentlemanly behavior towards the Dems begets the same.
Nope, because a lot of those American people, and most Dems, want Kavanaugh out not because of what he did or didn’t do. They want him scuppered because they know he will vote to uphold the constitution and they think that document is solely the product of the totality of the thinking of slave-holding sexist aristocrats who wanted to entrench their oligarchy forever. The genius and success of this country proves differently. But that doesn’t matter to them. They have been so long fed on a sanctimonious diet of hysterical agitprop and seething bitterness that no fact, no testimony, no reality will sway them from their dark twisted path of hate and doublethink.
Terms you will be hearing during the run up to the hearing featuring Ford, during it, and immediately afterwards? “Slutshame,” “Another rape,” “How dare you, Senator,” “Patriarchy,” and the always popular “sexist.” One thing you won’t hear? Any semblance of justice.
So, given decisions that are being made as I write this and likely before you read this, the die is cast.
Orrin Knox and Bob Leffingwell, call your office.
It is high noon in Washington and only one will be left standing after the imminent shootout. If the GOP shows half the courage of many who put them into office, Kavanaugh sits on the high court. If they sway and break with the political winds, he does not and the Dems can ride that momentum towards November. It’s all in the hands of just several individuals. Fallible, broken, human individuals who can do what they know is right or compromise with those they know hate this country with every fiber of their being.
Well, I’m not an overtly religious man. But if there ever was a time to pray for this nation it is now. Pray to forestall, as Louis XV knew, “Apres moi, le deluge.”
