When the last presidential election was cranking up, the Republican Party had a plethora of potential candidates. Some were very capable, some not so much. There were so many choices that the debates were divided into two tiers.
All in all, seventeen candidates were vying for the top spot at the table. First-tier candidates included Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Huckabee, Kasich, Paul, Rubio, Trump, and Walker.
Tier-two candidates included Santorum, Perry, Pataki, Jindal, Graham, and Gilmore. These rankings adjusted as the primary season continued and finally whittled down to the final three: Trump, Kasich, and Cruz. We all know how this turned out.
So, as we look to the future, certainly the president is running for reelection. That is a given, and he started running, for all intents and purposes, the day after his inauguration. Given that reality, it is hard to see many Republicans running against him for the nomination. The race could see Jeff Flake, Ted Cruz or, more likely, John Kasich throw their hat in the ring only to have it unceremoniously stomped on by the incumbent Donald Trump. These potential candidates are, at least at this point, keeping low. If they are to be viable, they will need to start making a name for themselves again and soon. There is not much on the radar about them.
The Republican primary will probably be over before it gets started. Barring some unforeseen (but hoped for by the Democrats) disaster waiting in the wings, President Trump will be the Republican nominee.
A Potential Candidate
There is one potential candidate with a more clearly defined long-game view. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has been making the news. He has been making noise and progress in the reshaping of his image. Graham has been on shaky ground for some time in his home state of South Carolina and is viewed as less than a staunch conservative. His popularity in his home state has been tepid, to say the least. That was before the new Lindsey Graham stepped out from behind the curtain.
Now he is a firebrand. His heated and fun-to-watch defense of Judge Kavanaugh improved his hometown rating by 43 points. He has come out as a staunch supporter for the border wall and is playing very strongly to the Republican base of his state. Senator Graham has also switched from a robust criticizer of the president to a firm and outspoken supporter. Why? Because he needs to be seen as a conservative and not as a Republican in name only (RINO), the brush with which he is often painted.
Lindsey Graham has been one to reach across the aisle more than others. This may not be such a bad thing either. In an election where he can solidify the Republican base as a strong conservative, he can still capture a percentage of independents and right-leaning Democrats because of his more moderate-to-liberal history. Lindsay Graham might have the right mix of ying and yang to pull off the election in 2024.
In his 2016 bid, Lindsey Graham was relegated to the second tier and never got the press or the consideration he thought he deserved. His interviews were a combination of opponent bashing and complaining about how the debates worked to set the stage for his ouster from the race. His performance was lackluster and his campaign short-lived.
Possible Opponents
Mentioned earlier in this article, the three who might make a potential run in 2020 are not, in my opinion, in a good position to mount a race. There is a likeability issue for Ted Cruz. He won his Senatorial race over Beto O’Rourke, who will most likely be running in 2020 on the Democrat ticket. Cruz did not garner much love from the Republican Party when he failed to endorse Trump as the nominee at the 2016 convention. When he finally did come around, his endorsement was less than sincere when Cruz said: “After many months of careful consideration, of prayer and searching my own conscience, I have decided that on Election Day, I will vote for the Republican nominee.”
Jeff Flake lost much of his Republican support with his actions in the Kavanaugh hearings. Many see him as opposing Trump, and that will not play well with the conservative base which he will have to hold if he is to have any chance at the nomination. Lastly, there is John Kasich. He is seen as one of those lukewarm-in-the-middle politicians. And now with Kasich signing on with CNN, the network that the Republican base absolutely detests, he has thrown any conservative support away.
The Long Game
The new Lindsey Graham is much more supportive of the Republican Party and has shifted his positions much farther to the conservative side of the electorate. His support for Kavanaugh and his excoriation of the Democrat members in the confirmation hearings endeared him to the Republican base. His statement about making sure the next Supreme Court Justice will be conservative coupled with his support for the president, the border wall and more, are all setting him up to carry forward the Trump-like policies in 2024.
These moves can be seen by some as calculated to try to solidify the Trump followers that will not have Trump to vote for in 2024. Lindsey Graham may very well be setting the groundwork for his run in 2024. By the way: He has been able to stay in the limelight, and at the same time cater at least in some measure to the center. He just might have a shot.
