Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) will meet next week with President Trump. The Trump-MBS focus on Iranian nuclear weapons will top the bilateral agenda. He is certain to speak also with CIA Director (and incoming Secretary of State) Mike Pompeo, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, and other senior national security officials.
No Nukes for Iran
Bin Salman has made it clear that Iranian nuclear ambitions must be stopped dead. He told CBS News that if Iran develops nuclear weapons, it will begin the nuclearization of the region. “Saudi Arabia does not want to acquire any nuclear bomb, but without a doubt if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible.”
“Saudi Arabia does not want to acquire any nuclear bomb, but without a doubt if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible.”
The MBS statement will be taken by Iranian leaders as a stark warning. Western diplomats and intelligence officer have spoken informally for years about Saudi contingency plans for nuclear weapons. They speculate that Pakistan will jump-start the Saudi weapons program in return for past Saudi financing for Pakistan’s nuclear development.
MBS dismissed a question of rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia for dominance among Muslim-majority countries. He suggested that Iran is much weaker, economically and militarily.
“Iran is not a rival to Saudi Arabia. Its army is not among the top five armies in the Muslim world. The Saudi economy is larger than the Iranian economy. Iran is far from being equal to Saudi Arabia.”
Khamenei “The New Hitler” of the Middle East
The Saudi statesman cautioned, however, that Iran has dangerous expansionist ambitions. He compared Iranian strongman Ayatollah Khamenei to Hitler. Asked the basis for his comparison, his reply was simple.
Ayatollah Khamenei “wants to expand, … very much like Hitler who wanted to expand.”
“Because he wants to expand. He wants to create his own project in the Middle East very much like Hitler who wanted to expand at the time. Many countries around the world and in Europe did not realize how dangerous Hitler was until what happened, happened. I don’t want to see the same events happening in the Middle East.”
No to Iran Deal, Yes to Regime Change
Bin Salman will be pushing on an open door with the Trump Administration and its allies. President Trump cited disagreements over Iran policy as the main reason he replaced Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State. “When you look at the Iran deal, I thought it was terrible. [Tillerson] thought it was okay,” Trump told reporters. “I wanted to either break it or do something. He felt a little differently. … With Mike Pompeo, we have a similar thought process.”
“With Mike Pompeo, we have a similar thought process.” – Pres. Trump
Pompeo has called Iran a “thuggish police state” and a “despotic theocracy.” He tweeted in November 2016, “I look forward to rolling back this disastrous deal with the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism.” His desire extends beyond canceling the disastrous Iran deal, however. He has called for regime change. “Congress must act to change Iranian behavior, and, ultimately the Iranian regime,” he wrote in a July 2016 op-ed.
“Congress must act to change Iranian behavior, and, ultimately the Iranian regime.” – Mike Pompeo
The news media have presented Defense Secretary Mattis as a defender of the Iran deal, but his position is more nuanced. Like all good commanders, he prefers a diplomatic solution to a military one. Military solutions are necessary only after diplomacy fails. The current diplomatic solution to preventing Iranian nukes is the Iran deal, therefore he supports it. But Mattis leaves no doubt that we cannot allow nuclear weapons in Iran.
President Trump is known to pay attention to the opinions of Ambassador John Bolton, who is considered a potential choice to be National Security Advisor if Gen. McMaster is replaced. Bolton’s views on Iran are plain. He praised President Trump in January for supporting the popular opposition to the regime.
“Our goal should be regime change in Iran.” – John Bolton
Bolton advised Trump to pull out of the Iran deal, restore all the sanctions that it lifted, support the opposition financially, and cooperate with allied intelligence agencies. “There’s a lot we can do, and we should do it,” he said. “Our goal should be regime change in Iran.”
More important, the policy is set by President Trump, and he already has signaled opposition to the deal. MBS is helping Trump make the case for his policy by assuring hand-wringing waverers in Washington that allowing nuclear weapons in Iran will cause them to be introduced throughout the Arabian Peninsula. That is a dose of harsh reality that the Iran deal “narrative” set by Obama and Ben Rhodes overlooked.
