The Trump-Putin summit on July 16th is not a meeting of equals. Trump leads a superpower, but Putin does not. Russia is a regional power in economic, ideological and non-nuclear military terms. Nuclear weapons are the only vestige of its former superpower status.
Putin hopes that by challenging the United States, he can take Russia back to the glory days of the Soviet empire. But that empire was based on the enslavement of dozens of captive nations. More than half of those nations are now members of the EU and NATO, and most of the rest aspire to membership.
Russia cannot compete with the robust economic growth resulting from Trump’s tax-cutting and regulatory reform. This is Putin’s fundamental weakness.
Russia belongs in the same league as regional powers Iran and China. Driven by his rivalry with the U.S., Putin reached out to the Chinese four years ago, hoping they would join him. But Chinese leaders sensed his eagerness, and astutely took advantage of him by executing oil and gas contracts that favored Chinese interests at Russian expense.
Putin is sacrificing his national interests just to be able to challenge the U.S. as a superpower. This is unsustainable for Russia: they cannot compete with the robust economic growth resulting from Trump’s tax-cutting and regulatory reform. This is Putin’s fundamental weakness.
Putin wanted to build up Russian influence in Syria, Iran, and North Korea to give him negotiating leverage with Trump. He sees that influence as currency in his relationship with America. But President Trump has robbed him of his influence with North Korea, and diluted his strength in Syria.
It’s All About Ukraine
The only issue where Putin cannot make any concessions is Ukraine: everything else is negotiable.
Trump should pound that [Ukraine] pain point repeatedly, to keep Putin off balance, and never let up.
Conceding in Ukraine would mean the end of his power. Leaving it would expose Putin’s weakness, and turn the powerful Russian nationalists implacably against him. He has promised to restore national greatness and glory. In the Russian context, that means retaking territory. If he backs out of Ukraine and the Crimea, he has failed, obviously and irrefutably.
This gives President Trump an enormous advantage. Putin is very vulnerable, and he may be willing to give up a lot to sustain his positions there. This is his main weakness in negotiations, and he knows that he is exposed. Trump should pound that pain point repeatedly, to keep him off balance, and never let up. Trump should never give up that advantage.
Iran is a Serious Threat to Russia
Iran is a geopolitical threat to Russian interests in the Caucasus region, and is a serious competitor in oil and gas markets. Putin pretends to support Iran, but his main goals are to shut Iran out of the global energy market, and to encourage them to harm American interests. The Iranian threat to shut down the Strait of Hormuz aligns perfectly with Putin’s interest, because it will increase the price of oil and gas without diminishing Russia’s market share.
Equally important, Putin has a problem of his own with potential revolutionary fervor fueled by Islamic extremism. He cannot afford increased Iranian influence in the Caucasus or Central Asia. He hopes that while Iranian military and terrorist energies are turned against America, they will not engage with extremist elements in Tajikistan, or inside Russia. The Russians have so far succeeded in keeping Tajikistan divided from Iran, but given the cultural kinship of Tajiks and Iranians, that will not last forever.
Trump Doesn’t Need Putin
Trump has very little need for Putin, and Putin has nothing of value to offer Trump. President Trump has cut him off repeatedly on the world stage.
- In the Koreas, Trump parried the Russian influence and shut them out of the peninsula in spite of a common border and somewhat shared ideology. Singapore was a humiliation for Putin, showing that he is powerless compared to Trump.
- In Ukraine, the Trump administration is supplying Ukraine with lethal weapons for self-defense.
- Trump has accelerated deployment of American and NATO forces to Cold War border regions, and is refurbishing the naval base in Iceland used to track Soviet/Russian submarines.
- In Syria, the American military destroyed the elite Russian mercenaries – the same ones that invaded Crimea and Ukraine – in a single battle.
- In energy politics, Trump is building a new U.S.-GCC axis of cooperation that blocks the Russian attempt to partner with OPEC.
- In Europe, President Trump just turned expectations upside down and came out of the Brussels summit with a stronger NATO commitment than ever before. He also brought up the glaring security threat from Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. His pointed reminder that former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is on Gazprom’s payroll must have made current chancellor Merkel squirm a little.
Propaganda to the Rescue
Putin will bluff and posture, and in fact has already started. President Trump was reported by anonymous G7 sources to say that if people in Crimea speak Russian, it must be Russian territory. Ambassador John Bolton denied that Trump had said any such thing, at least in Bolton’s presence. The Administration has said on the record that it does not recognize the Crimea annexation.
They make blatantly false statements as a bluff, to show Putin winning on the international stage.
But the spurious report of the Crimea comment has been trumpeted by the Kremlin propaganda machine. Russian Senator Aleksey Pushkov claimed that Putin has already won the negotiation by obtaining advance recognition of Crimea. Pushkov’s claim is entirely false, but it’s a good example of what Russian propagandists do. They make blatantly false statements as a bluff to show Putin winning on the international stage. The summit hasn’t even begun, but they already are hailing it as a victory of Putin over Trump.
The Kremlin propagandists also will say the one-on-one meeting is evidence that Putin installed Trump as a puppet. Putin seized on that narrative shortly after the election, and has run with it. It was the greatest gift to him from the American media, and he promotes it every chance he gets.
Putin’s real goals for the summit are to keep Ukraine, appear equal to America and superior to Trump, and to increase his control over world energy markets. But he has nothing to give that President Trump values. President Trump should not give an inch.
