The Donald Trump/North Korea summit might not be happening after all. While North Korean and South Korean relations have progressed by leaps and bounds since the two nations’ leaders met in April, relations with America have soured in recent days. North Korea has reportedly threatened to pull out of a proposed summit with President Donald Trump if the USA demands that they give up its nuclear weapons.
The developments are rather odd given that North Korea has already pledged that it will pursue a nuclear weapons- free peninsula. When and how (and if) such denuclearization will occur remains to be seen. However, with North Korea having signaled a willingness to dismantle its nukes program, it’d make sense for the USA to at least want to rekindle discussions regarding the issue.
In North Korea’s defense, however, the current sticking point was stirred by National Security Advisor John Bolton, who said that the United States would be unwilling to let “benefits flow” unless denuclearization was well underway. The sticking point seems to be more about when and how, rather than if.
Trump and Kim were scheduled to meet in Singapore on June 12th. With that summit date fast approaching, Singapore, the United States, and North Korea stand idle. After President Trump wrote a letter effectively telling North Korea Thanks but no thanks, it’s anyone’s guess as to how this impasse will play out.
Of course, if you’ve been following North Korean rhetoric, you’ll probably know that North Korea loves threatening to walk away from the table. Conversely, Trump has been more of a nation leader whose presidency seems to indulge more reconsiderations resulting in policy flip-flops. Indeed, American and North Korean relations have long been plagued by complexities. Let’s take a look at some:
1985: North Korea signs Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
In 1985, North Korea actually signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. However, North Korea did not complete an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards agreement.
1992: Both Koreas sign the “Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula”
In 1992, North and South Korea took the anti-nuclear weapons pledges further, signing a mutual agreement that neither country would develop, test, or deploy nuclear weapons. South Korea had already made it evident that it had no nuclear weapons ambitions.
1993: North Korea threatens to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Just a year later, North Korea threatens to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The spat emerged after North Korea refused to allow international inspectors in. Talks with the United States and United Nations coax the rogue nation to stay in the agreement.
1994: United States agrees to facilitate light water reactors
Under the 1994 Agreed Framework, the United States agrees to build North Korea nuclear reactors for energy production. The light water reactors would have been weapons proliferation resistant, especially compared to the graphite reactors North Korea was working on. Jimmy Carter also became the first former U.S. President to visit North Korea.
1995-1999: Both sides drag their feet
While relations stabilized, many believe that North Korea was still pursuing nuclear ambitions. The country tried to launch a space entry vehicle, supposedly for satellite delivery, but many suspect it was a ruse to test ICBM technology. North Korea also dragged its feet on inspections and other parts of the agreement.
Meanwhile, the United States failed to hold up its end of the deal as well. Fuel deliveries, which were agreed-upon compensation for the loss of nuclear energy, were delayed. Sanctions were not lifted, and North Korea remained on the list of state terrorism sponsors.
2000: Relations seem to be improving
Throughout the rest of the 90s, relations with North Korea seemed to be thawing, or at least stabilizing. In 2000, there were even talks of U.S. President Bill Clinton visiting North Korea and expanding the 1994 Agreed Framework. However, talks fell apart, portending rocky relations ahead.
2002: The 1994 Agreed Framework Collapses
The 1994 Agreed Framework collapsed. The breakdown came after then-President George W. Bush labeled North Korea as part of the “Axis of Evil,” and accused them of secretly enriching uranium. Relations quickly deteriorated.
2003 to 2006: Six parties talk, little headway
From 2003, North Korea, the United States, China, Russia, South Korea, and Japan all engaged in the “Six Party” talks. The talks led to North Korea agreeing to rejoin the nonproliferation treaty and promising to give up its nuclear weapons. However, in 2006, North Korea began testing long-range missiles and ramping up its criticisms of the United States. America had been dragging its feet on the light water reactor, and had also slapped new sanctions on North Korea.
2006: A nuke is detonated
In 2006, North Korea shocked the world by detonating a nuclear weapon. This was in contradiction to previous agreements, and strong proof that the rogue nation had indeed been pursuing nuclear weapons technology. North Korea claimed that the test was America’s fault, owing to undue threats, pressure, and sanctions.
2009: Another nuclear test
In 2009, North Korea detonated yet another nuclear bomb. The country also continued to test long-range missiles, claiming they were for satellite purposes.
2012 onwards: North Korea doubles down
From 2012 onwards, North Korea’s ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs began to rapidly advance. In response, the United States cut food aid. While the Obama administration did increase pressure on North Korea, the White House was careful to avoid inflaming the situation. Some argued that President Obama was too soft on North Korea.
2017: President Trump and Rocket Man
In 2016, President Trump was elected President of the United States. A political outsider, Trump has been far more aggressive in criticizing North Korea than his predecessors. He has also pushed for some of the strictest sanctions to date. Many feared that the president’s often strong rhetoric would worsen the situation. However, others argue that Trump’s threats may have forced North Korea to come to the table.
I told Rex Tillerson, our wonderful Secretary of State, that he is wasting his time trying to negotiate with Little Rocket Man…
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 1, 2017
Now, the June 12th summit in Singapore involving President Trump and Kim Jong Un is on hiatus, seemingly. Will the show go on? It’s quite possible, given that North Korea has long sought a meeting with an American president. At the same time, both Trump and Kim have are currently on the outs, defaulting a few steps back.
