I have written several articles this week focusing on voter intensity. Here is an example of what it meant in the 2004 presidential race, where Ohio was the one battleground state that mattered. See here for a list of the articles.
By November it was clear that the intensity had turned in favor of Bush.
Ohio balanced on a knife’s edge, and could have gone either for President Bush or Senator John Kerry. More than half of the resources of both parties were focused on swaying just enough Ohio voters to win it. Bush won the state, and therefore re-election, because the voter intensity was greater on his side than on Kerry’s.
I spent several weeks in Summit County, Ohio, around Akron, as a ‘volunteer marshal.’ My task was to identify and recruit volunteers who would help identify Bush voters, and on Election Day remind them to vote. The Democrats had a huge money advantage, and were paying people to canvass neighborhoods. We had only our volunteers.
Voter Intensity and Post-It Notes
By November it was clear that the intensity had turned in favor of Bush. In the final week we had people walking in to the local headquarters, telling us that their union had endorsed Kerry but their hearts were with Bush. They made phone calls, dropped leaflets, and knocked on doors.
On Election Day we were assigned to visit thousands of homes, to turn out their residents to vote. We were to speak to them if possible, and leave a pamphlet if they weren’t home. But we were out of pamphlets, and the strict state campaign finance laws didn’t allow extra donations to print them.
The volunteers hand-wrote thousands of Post-It notes, “Vote Yet? –W” to leave on voters’ front doors.
We had hundreds of volunteers Monday night looking for a way to help, so I went to a local office supply store and bought Post-It notes. I had the volunteers write thousands of notes, “Vote Yet? –W.” It took them several hours. That level of willingness to work is voter intensity.
On Election Day, when voters came home, they found those handwritten notes on their doors. Seeing that a regular human has written a note by hand, and gone to the effort to stick it on a front door, makes people go out and vote, even if they are tired. That volunteer effort is what you get from voter intensity.
Hallway Phone Banking
Late on the afternoon of Election Day, the one paid employee of the Bush-Cheney campaign came out of his office looking pale. I found out later that a close friend of his worked for a news network and had gotten the early exit polling results, which predicted a solid win for Kerry in Ohio. All he told me was to do absolutely everything possible to turn out every last vote in Summit County.
I looked out in our big room with the phone banks, and saw about 20 empty phone lines. I went up to several people in the room, asked them to put away the phone scripts and the voter lists. “Call your spouse, your bowling buddies, your quilting buddies, your PTA contacts. Don’t tell them the President needs their help. Tell them you need their help.”
Within 20 minutes the room was overflowing. People sat in the hallways, using personal cell phones. They called through all our lists, then called through lists of their own friends, then called them all again.
Within 20 minutes the room was overflowing. We had people sitting out in the hallways, using their personal cell phones (this was back when most people paid by the minute). They called through all our lists, then called through lists of their own friends, then called through all the lists again, and again.
A woman of Vietnamese origin had come in on her own the week before, and spent days going through the phone book and calling every listing with a Vietnamese surname. She called several friends that evening, and they came in and helped her. Their bilingual group called every family in Summit County with a Vietnamese surname, and if they were registered voters they went to vote for Bush. That is voter intensity.
Record GOP Voter Turnout
In the last three hours that the polls were open, Summit County had a record turnout. In fact, the turnout was so high that the Kerry campaign challenged the results. They were suspicious that there had been some kind of fraud, because the Bush-Cheney team had so exceeded expectations for Republican voter turnout. It took months to satisfy them that there had been no wrong-doing.
Turnout was so high the Kerry campaign challenged the results, suspecting some kind of fraud.
But there wasn’t fraud, there was unbounded voter intensity. It was motivated by both antipathy toward Senator Kerry and approval of Bush. The motivations didn’t matter as much as the voter intensity, though. What mattered was that they showed up to vote, to volunteer, to ask their friends to vote, and to ask again.
2018 Advantage: Democrats
Right now, in 2018, the Democrats have much higher voter intensity on their side than Republicans. They are motivated by antipathy toward Trump, and by a feeling that they were robbed of the election. They think they see a permanent Leftist majority within their reach, almost within their grasp.
Republican Unity Generates Voter Intensity
Luckily, Republican voter intensity is within the reach of Trump and the Republican leadership. If they shrink the size, cost, and influence of government; establish a truly secure border that will keep out the drugs, criminal gangs, potential terrorist infiltrations, and illegal immigrants; and work together in a united front to restore good government; Republican voters will trust them again, and turn out to re-elect them. But it will happen only if they earn the trust of the voters, by doing what they did with tax reform. They have to pass legislation, together.
