Where Does ISIS Go Next…Part 2 – Europe

By: - September 6, 2017

“It’s in these neighborhoods meant as the host country’s attempt to incorporate immigrants, namely those from Middle Eastern nations, where terror cells were fostered.” 

With ISIS meeting defeat in Mosul and momentum with the rebel forces countering the group in Syria, the Islamic State is due for a new battleground mainstay. As estimates peg their number of sympathizers to be in the millions worldwide it would appear the standard bearer of extremism is not at a dearth of options. Though an outright move from the Middle East isn’t necessarily required, as the group still maintains a semblance of control in parts of Iraq, a look around the globe shows ISIS has plenty of places to potentially call home.

A review of the group’s activity and support of attacks in Europe over the last year shows ISIS has the chance to leverage an existing terror infrastructure and capitalize on porous borders and lax immigration policies in some countries. Though the pace of attacks in westernized nations such as London and Spain have increased the scrutiny by law enforcement, ISIS clearly has sympathizers already burrowed throughout the region.

The latest ISIS-linked attack in Europe, by way of a vehicle killing thirteen people in Barcelona, Spain, highlights the group’s ability to inspire and control operatives and sympathizers from its base in Iraq. In its applause for the murders, ISIS leadership identified more plans and targets for the country, most notably calling for attacks against Christians and a promise to return the country to “land of a caliphate.”

The latter point referring to Muslim reign and control over parts of Spain beginning in the eighth century that lasted to varying degrees for nearly seven hundred years. As further evidence that Spain is in the crosshairs, in the aftermath of the van attack intelligence and police would learn the jihadi militant network responsible had much larger attack plans and targets.

Perhaps most troubling is that the group was reportedly cultivated by an imam preaching jihad as a noble pursuit. One who takes advantage of a western nation’s freedom of religious assemblies and speech to recruit and groom an army of enemies against it.

In a dubious achievement, Belgium is estimated to be the largest western bearer of foreign fighters.

This rise and prevalence of extremists disguising themselves as religious leaders in Islamic communities is nothing new for European nations. And it has proven to be a valuable strategy in this generations-long war for jihadists. In France, where over the last five years victims have fallen prey to terrorists at the hands of a range of weaponry and tactics, attackers plotted and prepared among the citizenry.

Taking advantage again of the target nation’s goodwill and open arms, the perpetrators have capitalized on the banlieues nestled throughout cities like Paris. It’s in these neighborhoods meant as the host country’s attempt to incorporate immigrants, namely those from Middle Eastern nations, where terror cells were fostered. It is where otherwise seemingly peaceful men would lie in wait waiting for their moment to earn their jihadi credentials.

Similar progressions have also been replicated in another European hot spot for terror attacks in recent years, Belgium. It is here where bombs and blades have been utilized in attacks by those residing in neighborhoods consuming swaths of areas in the country’s capital city of Brussels. In a dubious achievement, Belgium is estimated to be the largest western bearer of foreign fighters. Jihadists who have built up street cred on the front lines in Syria and who have also found their way to places like the United Kingdom to extend jihad throughout even more of Europe.

With the United Kingdom added to the list, these four countries represent a catcher’s mitt that aligns the western wall of the continent to receive the battle hardened. And as a springboard to the Islamic State’s holy grail, the United States.

Though the pace of attacks in Europe over the last couple of years has increased, the presence of fully functioning and capable intelligence and law enforcement services contrasts with the corruption and lawlessness in parts of Africa and Asia in particular. And while even the most elite security apparatus can be vulnerable to someone willing to take their own life with that of his victims, such capability is a deterrent to core leadership, the personalities who breathe life into the strategic plan and motivate the group’s disciples.

A deterrent, that is, for now.

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