“While the Mexican government, with the assistance of the United States, will continue to crack down on drug cartels, their efforts are unlikely to bring an end to the war.”
In early January of 2016 Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, the most powerful drug lord in the world, was arrested by Mexican authorities. Almost immediately, he was sent to the United States to face charges, and more importantly, to put him outside of the reach of his Sinaloa Cartel.
El Chapo had been arrested and sent to Mexican jails before, only to escape with the help of his Sinaloa compatriots. With El Chapo in American custody, many believed that one of the darkest chapters in the Mexican drug war was finally and permanently coming to a close.
However, Chapman’s arrest created a power vacuum and rival drug cartels old and new have been battling for turf. These battles only intensified in 2017, explaining why said year will go down as the deadliest year in the drug war’s history.
The Mexican drug war will go down as one of the deadliest conflicts in 2017, likely trailing only the Syrian Civil War and the battle against the Islamic State.
From January to November, some 23,101 murder investigations were launched and December is sure to add more to the tally. Many more have gone missing, and likely some of them have found their way to an early grave. Previously, 2011 was the deadliest year in the drug war, when some 22,409 people were killed.
With over 23,000 likely dead, the Mexican drug war will go down as one of the deadliest conflicts in 2017, likely trailing only the Syrian Civil War and the battle against the Islamic State. With both of those conflicts appearing to be winding down while the drug war looks to be increasing in intensity, it’s possible that the Mexican drug war will end up being the deadliest conflict in 2018.
It’s not just gang bangers who are dying either. At least 11 journalists were killed in Mexico throughout the course of the year. Many of those killed had reported negatively on drug cartels, including Miroslava Breach, one of Mexico’s better-known journalists. Reporters Without Borders ranks Mexico as the second most dangerous country for journalists, trailing only war-ravaged Syria.
Reporters Without Borders ranks Mexico as the second most dangerous country for journalists, trailing only Syria.
With Mexican drug cartels making between $19 and $29 billion dollars off of the drug trade in the United States alone, the stakes are staggering. Mexican drug lords are regularly ranked among the most powerful and wealthiest individuals in the world. At the height of his power, El Chapo was believed to be a billionaire. With so much on the line, the obscene violence should come as no surprise.
Power Vacuum Created Power Struggle Which Produced Violence
From 2012 to 2015, deaths in the Mexican drug war steadily declined. It’d be tempting to laud the politicians and military for their efforts to bring the violence under control. Undoubtedly, security forces played an important role. However, during this time period, El Chapo’s Sinaloa Cartel had consolidated power and also brokered uneasy “peace” deals with many of its rivals.
Control of the lucrative drug trade routes is the ultimate goal for many gangs, but these paths are paved with blood and the tolls are exacted with violence.
Violence can be bad for business, especially for drug cartels. It simply draws too much attention and generates too many negative headlines. At its height, Sinaloa tried to maintain peace, at least as much as the drug industry would allow. As El Chapo started to live life more on the run, he started to slowly lose control of the Sinaloa Cartel. The group itself was increasingly at risk of fracturing.
Yet even as El Chapo was slowly losing control, he still kept the Sinaloa Cartel in line. With his arrest, rival factions within Sinaloa and other cartels have moved to challenge the group.
Sinaloa Fracturing, Resulting in Violence
When El Chapo was arrested, the head was cut off the snake. However, Sinaloa turned out to be the proverbial “hydra”. When one had was cut off, instead of dying, multiple heads emerged. Splinter groups broke from Sinaloa and once wary rivals pushed to secure more turf, more drug trade routes, and everything else.
Many of the people drawn to the drug trade lust for money and power and they’d prefer to share that with as few people as possible.
A struggle has broken out between Guzman’s sons, Ivan Archivaldo Guzman and Alfredo Guzman Salazar, and their uncle Guano Guzman. While the sons have widely been seen as the heirs to the empire, Guano has pushed for power, thus fracturing the group. Guano has also been targeting government forces directly, going as far as to set up ambushes against the military.
Other Sinaloa groups have emerged as well, including the Damaso subgroup. The leader of this group, Damaso Lopez Serrano “El Mini Lic”, has surrendered to authorities, putting the group’s future into question. There’s also Ismael Zambada García, the founder of the Cartel and still one of its highest ranking leaders. Reportedly, he backs El Chapo’s sons in the current power struggle.
The power struggles are far from surprising. For drug cartels, the greatest non-government threat often comes not from without but instead within. Many of the people drawn to the drug trade lust for money and power and they’d prefer to share that with as few people as possible. Like any entrepreneur, many of the most ambitious want to be their own boss, answering to no one.
Turf Wars Destroying Lives and Communities
When drug cartels go to war, they often drag local communities into the war with them. Cartels can punish locals for “sheltering” rival cartels and will make examples and demand allegiance. Of course, should the cartel lose power in an area, those people who had previously been forced to proclaim allegiance can find themselves being punished.
In the past, kidnappings primarily focused on the rich. However, over the past few years middle and working class people have been targeted as well.
Meanwhile, war is expensive and money is always tight. This is especially true for the smaller gangs that lack control over the most lucrative drug trade routes. Such groups often resort to extortion, kidnapping, and other non-drug trade methods for raising revenues. Control of the lucrative drug trade routes is the ultimate goal for many gangs, but these paths are paved with blood and the tolls are exacted with violence.
Those gangs that can’t produce enough profit through the drug trade often turn to kidnapping and extortion. In the past, kidnappings primarily focused on the rich. However, over the past few years, middle and working-class people have been targeted as well. Shop-keepers, taco vendors, anyone who might have a bit of extra money squirreled away could be a target.
Unfortunately, 2018 is unlikely to bring much reprieve. While the Mexican government, with the assistance of the United States, will continue to crack down on drug cartels, their efforts are unlikely to bring an end to the war.
There’s simply too much money at stake.
