There has been a flurry of developments concerning North Korea over the past few days. The most important of which are rumors that North and South Korea are working towards an end to their war and that denuclearization could actually happen. Technically, South Korea and North Korea remain at war, having agreed to only a truce, not a peace treaty, in 1953. Meanwhile, North Korea has previously hinted at little willingness to remove its nukes.
It’s important to keep in mind that North Korea has backed out of previous pledges several times before. Even if North Korea agrees to terms, that doesn’t mean that it’ll actually adhere to them. Regardless, the momentum behind the most recent announcements and rumors suggests that real change could be in the air.
Apparently, North Korean ruler Kim Jong-un is planning to signal a willingness to denuclearize his country when he meets with South Korean President Moon Jae-in on April 27th. The meeting would take place on South Korean soil. No North Korean leader has set foot inside South Korea since the two countries split. If the meeting is held, it will mark the third such “inter-Korean” summit, with the last one being held in 2007.
Meanwhile, a Korean paper “Munhwa Ilbo” reported that North and South Korean leaders were working on an official end to the decades-long Korean war. Supposedly, winding down the demilitarized zone (DMZ) has also been discussed. South Korea hasn’t officially acknowledged the rumored talks but officials did state that the country would be willing to negotiate a peace deal should North Korea denuclearize.
However, North Korea has previously refused to view South Korea as even being a legitimate party in peace talks. South Korea did not sign the 1953 Korean Armistice Agreement. Instead, the deal was signed between the United Nations, China, and North Korea. The United States remains in charge of the UN forces in South Korea. Even a willingness to discuss a peace treaty with South Korea could hint that North Korea is thawing, however.
Moreover, it appears that the planned meeting with President Donald Trump and Kim Jung-un may go ahead as planned. The two leaders may sit down and talk in either May or June, depending on the outcome of the inter-Korean summit. No sitting President has ever met with the leader of North Korea, although retired Presidents have. Jimmy Carter was first, visiting North Korea in 1994, and subsequently two more times. Bill Clinton visited the country in 2009.
Sitting U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright met with Kim Jong II in 2000, marking the highest American leader to officially visit North Korea while in office. More recently, CEO Director Mike Pompeo also apparently traveled to North Korea in early April. Pompeo is Trump’s current nomination for Secretary of State. Apparently, Pompeo visited North Korea to lay the groundwork for direct talks between Trump and Kim.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has also announced that he will visit Pyongyang soon. While China remains North Korea’s biggest benefactor, relations between the two nations have been quite rocky over the past few years.
Why is North Korea changing now?
Just last year, North Korea was saber rattling and threatening nuclear war on a regular basis. Why the sudden about-face? That’s up for speculation but changing conditions outside of North Korea may be the biggest driving force.
First, President Trump has thus far proven to be less tolerant and more bellicose towards North Korea. Generally, American Presidents have either ignored North Korea or restrained their criticism. Not Trump. The President has frequently taken shots directly at Kim and North Korea.
North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un just stated that the “Nuclear Button is on his desk at all times.” Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 3, 2018
Another major consideration is Chinese President Xi’s consolidation of power. Xi recently paved the way for lifetime rule for himself. Xi is known to be less friendly towards North Korea. Although the two leaders have met in recent weeks, China has previously indicated that it’s growing tired of North Korea’s shenanigans.
With support drying up and President Trump being more confrontational, North Korea might finally be feeling the heat.
