North and South Korean relations are thawing at a rate that would have seemed inconceivable just a year ago. While the two sides have not fought any major battles for decades, they technically remain at war and relations have been tense since the 1950s. There are many theories regarding why relations are warming so quickly. Some believe that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power is putting pressure on North Korea. Others point to internal dissent. South Korean President Moon Jae-in, however, is heaping the credit on American President Donald Trump.
During a Cabinet meeting, President Moon apparently said, “President Trump should win the Nobel Peace Prize. What we need is only peace.”
The comments come after a historic meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jung Un and South Korean President Moon. For the first time since the Korean War in the 1950s, a North Korean leader set foot inside South Korea. President Moon also apparently took a step into North Korea, but it may have been unscripted.
Since the historic meeting took place, Kim Jung Un has pledged to forge a nuclear weapons-free Korean peninsula. In an immensely symbolic move, North and South Korea will also work to end the decades-long war.
President Trump and apparently even President Moon believe that the hard-lined strategy and rhetoric pursued by the United States over the last few years were a major part of the reason why Kim was so eager to come to the table. President Trump has threatened North Korea with “fire and fury” and said that he would “totally destroy” North Korea if need be.
At the time, such remarks drew widespread condemnation. Previous administrations have generally oscillated between ignoring North Korea, offering mild condemnations, and occasionally extending an olive branch. President Trump, however, has proven more willing to engage Kim on “his level,” exchanging insults and threats.
It might have worked. Moon has said on several occasions that Trump deserves major credit. Why? It’s hard to know what Kim is thinking, but Trump’s forcefulness and unpredictability may have caused Kim to reconsider his position. In the past, the North Korean regime would frequently throw “temper tantrums,” threatening to destroy America even though the North Korean military remains firmly stuck in the Cold War era. Most Presidents rolled their eyes. President Trump responded with threats in kind.
There are other possible factors at play, however. Kim’s recently meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping could also have had an effect on this decision. While China has been North Korea’s biggest benefactor since the end of the Cold War, most believe that Xi is not so enamored with Kim’s regime. Former Chinese president Jiang Zemin was long a supporter of North Korea. Over the years, Jiang and Xi have been tussling quietly behind the scenes for power in China. However, Xi has all but put an end to that power struggle, paving the way for life-long rule should he desire it. Jiang and his faction has been minimized to a considerable extent. Kim can no longer rely on Jiang for support and may be pushing for peace because of this.
Internal instability also remains a serious risk for Kim’s regime. While North Korea has weathered famines and other crises, the slow proliferation of the Internet and knowledge of life in the modern world could be sowing seeds of discontent. Add in the harsh sanctions imposed on North Korea, some of which President Trump pushed for, the regime may be worried about swelling internal discontent.
At the end of the day, who knows who deserves the Nobel Peace Prize. However, the world as a whole could use a dose of peace.
