Earlier this week, a meeting between a senior US diplomat and Taliban representatives in Doha took place to discuss a possible ceasefire. According to reports, the conference was held between a delegation led by Alice Wells, the deputy assistant secretary in the State Department’s Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, and various un-named Taliban officials.
According to one member of the Taliban team, who said he was part of a four-member delegation, there were “very positive signals” from the meeting, which he said was conducted in a “friendly atmosphere” in a hotel in the Qatari capital.
Despite their positive assessment, the Taliban made sure not to over-exaggerate the meeting’s significance. “You can’t call it peace talks,” said one of the Taliban officials. “These are a series of meetings for initiating formal and purposeful talks. We agreed to meet again soon and resolve the Afghan conflict through dialogue.”
It is important to note that this meeting could really underscore a new trend in the 17-year-long war in Afghanistan, one in which the players involved seek to work out the conflict with dialogue rather than bullets. This was the third meeting that has taken place between American and Taliban diplomats in the past several months. The latest gathering in Doha followed the unprecedented three-day truce during the Eid al-Fitr holiday in June. The truce saw unarmed Taliban fighters mingling with soldiers on the streets of Kabul and other cities throughout the country. It gave a glimpse of what actual peace in the country may look like, the first of its kind since earlier talks with the Taliban broke down in 2015.
The U.S. administration has been offering to negotiate with their enemies in Afghanistan for nearly a year. Indeed, a central feature of Trump’s new strategy for the country included the aspiration to bring Taliban leaders to the table. Does the Taliban’s willingness to talk mean they have finally broken down? Let’s not rush to conclusions. The Taliban is actually in a pretty good position strategically. Despite the U.S. and its allies trying to paint a rosy picture of the conflict, the truth is, Taliban forces still have quite a hold on territory throughout the country. On the other hand, the group has been weathering a ferocious storm since the U.S. surge took place last August. The Taliban has taken heavy casualties, with nearly a thousand fighters this month alone. Taliban commanders have also been systematically hunted and assassinated. While the Taliban are certainly willing to put up a fight, they can also be pragmatic.
This is why for the past four years, the Taliban has been expanding its diplomatic reach. This has allowed it to both push political goals in Afghanistan and also achieve a sense of international legitimacy. Taliban representatives have visited China, Iran, and some Central Asian countries, where they also met Russian officials. The Taliban, through its political commission and later through its political office in Qatar, has established vast contacts and relations with both local and extra-regional countries. Their list of contacts now includes Germany, France, Norway, the United States, China, Russia, Iran, Turkmenistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. Several of these countries stand out for their strong connections to both the official government in Kabul and the Taliban.
What does this future hold for the diplomatic backend of the Afghanistan conflict? It may just be the segue to a final resolution for a war that for many seems to be never-ending.
