For over a year, Chinese scientists have withheld samples of the bird flu strain H7N9. The virus has spread through poultry farms in China and has killed almost 40 percent of its infected victims, with almost 800 cases in China over the past couple of years. These kinds of transfers have been regular in the past, but the new difficulty in obtaining samples leads some to conclude that China might be harnessing biological warfare.
This has some currency as China is a major geopolitical competitor. The flu has many different strains, and the most virulent ones, like the Spanish flu in 1918, were devastating. An estimated 50 million people across the world were infected, including a quarter of the American population. And roughly a quarter-million Americans died from it. Without getting these strains it would be difficult for the U.S. to develop immunizations until people got infected. According to doctors at Health and Human Services, this would cause needless deaths.
The threat of germ warfare is often overblown in today’s circles and often used as liberal talking points to condemn Europeans. It has rarely been used in modern conflicts, and historically it is more accidental than deliberate. When the Spanish landed, the knowledge of microbes and organisms that caused diseases was still centuries away. It wasn’t until the mid-19th century that researchers discovered the cause of major contagions. Many people point to an example of the U.S. Army giving infected blankets to natives, but that has been debunked. There is only one documented instance of this practice, but that was British soldiers, not American. And there is no indication that it worked since, by that time, the natives had built resistance to the disease. Moreover, there is significant doubt that this event occurred because it was still a good time before the knowledge of germ warfare was introduced by European thinkers. There was no germ warfare against the natives, just tragic cross-cultural contact.
The real key to understanding this story was buried in the news, behind the click-bait headlines. Pharmaceutical products are part of the proposed tariffs. These tariffs also include Chinese-supplied intravenous saline, as well as ingredients for certain oncology and anesthesia drugs. Instead of having nefarious purposes such as biological warfare, these flu samples are likely caught up in Chinese intransigence over trade barriers. They likely view the flu samples as just another trade product that they can slow-walk in retaliation over proposed tariffs.
The US should be concerned over flu outbreaks and the remote possibility of germ warfare. While saline solution and flu samples aren’t as sexy as holding a news conference announcing preserved steel-industry jobs, this is another example of why tariffs are good politics but bad policy. The industries hurt by free trade and helped by tariffs are often in towns that have been suffering for years. But there are numerous unintended consequences that include domestic industries hurt by the tariffs, and now we can add the possibility of outbreaks and even deaths.
