As of Sunday night, if there is one thing that comes across loud and clear about the Kavanaugh Affair, it is that we have to give the devil her due. Democratic senatorial harpies have made true, by the Senatorial example, the pop culture stereotype of white conservative males as befuddled, slow-moving clods. The boys have been outplayed at every juncture of this.
From the beginning, as I held forth in these very pages, the whole scam was completely predictable. But Grassley and his staff couldn’t see what was and is right in front of them. The Dems gambled that Chuck and the boys had not learned the Lesson of Munich: a bully, when faced with weakness, is emboldened and will ask for more. Every considerate move by Grassley was sneered at as lack of spine by the Dems, much as Adolf and the boys laughingly viewed the French and British during the taking of the Rhineland, Sudetenland, etc. When asked after the war, the German High Command stated they had orders to turn tail and run at the Rhineland if they saw one French gun. They didn’t.
Even Lenin said probe with the bayonet. When faced with steel, retire. When faced with mush, advance. The gals in the Senate have stood face to face with mush. At every Grassley concession, like the German High Command, they likely thought, “They can’t be this stupid. This is a bluff. We have nothing and yet they retreat.” But the luck of Stupid Party cowardice held for the Dems and here we are.
The Dems have successfully deployed the Orwellian/Stalinesque/Goebbels tactic of only dealing in the subjective. Otherwise known as “The Big Lie.” Repeat something loud and often enough, and only repeat that one thing, and many dimwitted people will follow you. So, you say, “there is no hard evidence here.” And I say, “He almost raped her.” You retort, “Tell me how?” And I respond in a louder voice, “He almost raped her.” Ah, message discipline. No matter what you say I just parrot the talking point. No. Matter. What. Hence, objective truth doesn’t matter. Facts are irrelevant.
When I was a political consultant, back in the day when we thought Bork had a tough time, I used to tell my clients, “If I say the sky is green when you can clearly see that it is blue, and I convince enough people it is green, the sky is actually green.” The GOP hasn’t learned that political fact of life yet. They’re 150 years old. I mean the party, not their average age in the Senate. You’d think they’d have an inkling by now.
By the pic just released hours ago by Ronan Farrow and The New Yorker, you can see the new girl. Like Jim Phelps, they have chosen a certain type of female for the operation. The pic showcases a plaintive look, the minority virtue signaling, a Fitbit, the autumn picture taken at just the right time for the sun to hit her at that noble angle, the older hippy clothes, just, just…
Soooo much horse manure. But, perfectly played horse manure.
They made sure she and Ford were Dem activists, to insure loyalty. They needed late baby boomers, a target demographic. They had to be employed in the social science hive, to insure they got their reward on the back end.
Still more credit for them? They held their fire. They’ve had this for months but showed excellent OPSEC, played possum, and timed the thing well to confuse and rout their slow-witted obsolescent GOP opponents. Also, no leaks in a town like DC? Expertly played, Bolshies. And this isn’t the end. Cue the celeb shows of solidarity, the marches, and the television network talking points that were written weeks ago. Include Fox News in on this hunt because of their internal issues with sexual harassment. NBC has had worse problems. But they hold their ideological and message ground. Not so the FNC of today.
For those of us who love military history, compare this to the German airborne attack on Crete during WWII. The Hun drops in, even though the Brits could have easily guessed they were coming. The poor Kiwis are deployed all over the place, no defense in depth. Freyberg has to defend everywhere, which means nowhere, and the initiative is with the Boche. When the airfields aren’t defended better, the Uhlan reinforces by air and it’s over. Guess who the Germans are and who we are? Uh-huh.
So Sunday night at 11:30 p.m. the GOP is on the ropes. They may or may not get Kavanaugh in. He may pull himself out of the running. Trump may pull him out. Or the Thursday show will go well for him and he stands a slightly better than 50/50 chance—we’ll probably need Pence, as the Dem cacophony grows to a nerve-shattering clamor.
What will be the result either way?
Some think, out of sheer frustration with GOP timidity and incompetence on this and other issues like immigration, Trump may consider forming a third party to run with in 2020. Actually, it isn’t as batty as it sounds. It would split the anti-Trump vote between the GOP rump, sans populist Trump voters, and the Dems. As there are so many I told ya sos to go around, you need a Cray to count them all, the president must be considering some bold move, especially if he and his current party take it in the shorts in November.
But that interesting chess move is not a good bet to happen. If we lose, assuming we keep the Senate, he will lick his wounds and eventually nominate Amy Barrett, as some of us advocated in the first place. It would have been very hard, if not impossible, to #metoo her. Can he, not will he, recover from this? Of course. But it will take much political capital to do so and this capitalist is going to have to wait a bit until his political coffers are replenished to that point. He could have to wait past 2020.
In the meantime we plod on, some optimists seeing this as a mere speedbump. Others of us, who are more prone to historical realism and realpolitik, see this as entirely something else.
Yes, perhaps a much bigger bump. Perhaps Harper’s Ferry, a precursor of worse days to come.
