The stakes surrounding the Brexit controversy in Europe may have just gotten much higher. Citing recently leaked police documents, British media reported that the UK’s military has been ordered to draft plans to deploy troops in order to quell possible social unrest resulting from the country’s departure from the European Union.
According to reports, the team of army planners that has started drawing up these emergency measures consists of some twenty officers usually charged with overseeing Operation Temperer—the plan to provide soldiers to assist police following acts of terrorism. According to a “well-placed army source,” the military officials were ordered last week to step up planning for a “no-deal” Brexit scenario, namely a situation in which Britain simply removes itself from the EU without arriving at a deal with leaders in Brussels.
Deal or No Deal
Over the past two years since the Brexit referendum, UK leaders have been steeped in endless negotiations with the EU on how exactly their country would leave the Union.
The slim majority of Britons who voted “leave” in 2016 had their reasons: regaining a handle on their legal system, controlling UK regulations independent of bureaucrats in Brussels, and of course, shoring up the flow of immigration allowed by European-wide freedom of movement. Conversely, however, there were some perks to being part of the “Single Market” that makes up the EU. The Union allows for unfettered economic movement throughout the continent for any member state. For the anti-Brexit side (which included current Prime Minister Theresa May), this was the advantage of EU membership that would be most sorely missed by the UK.
So, along with her cabinet, Prime Minister May came up with an idea. Create a “soft exit” scenario in which the UK would mostly be freed from the legal confines of the Union, but still more or less keep the benefit of free commercial access to the rest of Europe. The proposal to Brussels was drafted up back in July in a document that came to be known as the Chequers Plan.
In early October, EU diplomats rejected May’s proposal. In the past, the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier warned the UK against attempting to leave the Union without giving up the benefits. From Barnier’s viewpoint, and that of his colleagues in Brussels, the Union’s Single Market is made up of four inextricable freedoms: free movement of people, goods, services and capital. The Chequers Plan is essentially a proposal to stay in the EU Single Market for goods, but not the other three freedoms. The EU claims May’s plan would lead to a diversion of trade and investment in the UK’s favor and to the “disadvantage of member states’ business.”
Activist Furry
The Brexit deadlock state of negotiations has only fueled the fire of controversy surrounding Brexit over the past several months.
Mass protests have been taking place throughout the UK since the summer. In June 100,000 demonstrators took part in a march down Pall Mall in central London to mark the second anniversary of the Brexit vote. The event, dubbed the People’s Vote march, was to demand a second referendum on leaving the EU. More recently, in October, nearly 700,000 people participated in a similar march, making it the largest protest in Britain since the Iraq War. Local media reported that Central London was ground to a halt for the duration of the event.
The security presence at these events is always palpable. At the June march, police were deployed throughout the route, on foot and in riot vans, in the backstreets and in helicopters. Reportedly, auxiliary units were on standby in case of a clash between the People’s Vote march and a pro-Brexit march starting less than two miles away at Victoria Station. In the more recent march last month, police were also sent to maintain order in the case of potential confrontations between activists. But according to reports, Scotland Yard was totally unprepared to deal with the masses of marchers—the turnout had exceeded all expectations, both of the organisers and of police. In addition to the concern of mass demonstrations a bad Brexit outcome could trigger, there’s the economic consequences of a “no-deal” scenario that would likely contribute to public disarray. A big voice on this point has come from the agriculture and farming sector, particularly those in Northern Ireland, that would be uniquely affected.
Martial Law
The British leadership certainly has reason to be concerned about what Brexit might do to domestic security.
So what might the British army actually do in order to keep order?
On the most basic level, the army would be deployed in key areas throughout the country in order to quell mass protests and violent riots. Police have also warned that enough protests in urban areas could also trigger a rise in non-Brexit related crime such as theft and vandalism. The military would also play a role in preventing those activities.
Potentially, the military could also get involved in performing more civil functions. UK officials are foreseeing possible shortages in vital supplies such as medicine, food, and other basic necessities. Soldiers could be called upon to play a role in transporting and delivering these items.
The army is also reportedly drawing up plans for using troops to help ease traffic chaos in UK cities.
Whatever their application may be in the end, the very prospect of using troops in response to Brexit highlights just how precarious the situation is. If the Brexit deadlock remains, the focus of England’s politicians may shift from finding the most beneficial deal to avoiding disaster.
