Russia is eating up all the headlines, but at Langley, CIA agents are just as worried about potential Chinese threats as they are about Putin and friends. CIA director Mike Pompeo recently told BBC that Chinese efforts at covert influence were as “concerning” as Russian influence.
Make no mistake, Pompeo certainly doesn’t believe that Russia is a slouch. He is anticipating Russia to attempt to influence the upcoming 2018 mid-term elections. Despite the threat, Pompeo has emphasized that the potential impact “won’t be great” and that America will have free and fair elections.
Pompeo believes that China actually presents a more well-rounded and complete threat. Not only can China field hackers and computer experts like Russia, but the Chinese can engage in more widespread traditional espionage acts as well.
“I have every expectation that they will continue to try and do that, but I’m confident that America will be able to have a free and fair election [and] that we will push back in a way that is sufficiently robust that the impact they have on our election won’t be great.” – Mike Pompeo
Further, China has more ways to hurt the United States. For example, the Chinese government can hack American trade secrets, steal key technologies, and then allow state-linked companies to profit off of them. Should American companies complain, they risk being denied access to China’s vast market.
Indeed, China and the United States may already be engaged in a low-level cold war. Certainly, the geopolitical sphere is moving away from hegemony to a more multi-polar world, with China being one of the biggest poles.
It’s the Economy, Stupid
Still, China might not rush to engage the United States as quickly as Russia will. The Chinese and American economies are closely intertwined, with China pumping over $450 billion dollars’ worth of exports per year in the American domestic market. If the two countries were to go war, that trade would grind to a halt, potentially crippling China.
However, Pompeo also cited China’s massive economy as a potential threat. Economic might is vital for military might. A strong economy generates tax revenues, which in turn can be used to invest in the military. A strong economy also supports a more active research sector. If the world should ever come to war, technology will be as vital, if not more so, as standing armies.
Russia certainly cannot be overlooked. The former Soviet Union possessed advanced technology, even if it wasn’t on par with the United States. Russia has continued to develop that technology and in recent years has been especially effective with a new breed of digital guerrilla warfare. Russian hackers have proven to be especially effective, disrupting elections, hacking valuable information, and sowing discord.
Regardless, China’s $11.2 trillion dollar economy and 1 billion plus people make it an even more formidable threat. China has also been pouring huge sums of money into research, universities, and military technology. While the United States maintains an edge, the gap is shrinking.
Further, China has proven to be quite effective at the spy game. A former American CIA agent and naturalized citizen, Jerry Chun Shing Lee, was recently arrested. Authorities believe Lee has been leaking information regarding American spies and assets. Approximately 20 American assets have been arrested in China since 2010, with some of them being executed. The breach caused one of the worst failures in CIA history and has dramatically reduced the Agency’s ability to operate in China.
So while the world remains fixated on Russia, Pompeo and others are rightly worried about China and the threat that it poses to the United States.
